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"Ingrid" Makes Turn to NW

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Updated: 9/15/2013 8:58 am
"Ingrid" Making the Turn NW... "Humberto" Remnants Trying to Refire... 

"Ingrid" reached hurricane strength late Sat. Primary impacts will be over Eastern Mexico but some moisture could get as far north as far Southern Texas early in the week. While "Ingrid" is producing very cold cloud top on IR satellite imagery, the appearance is otherwise somewhat ragged.  But shear will relax soon & some organization/strengthening will be possible at that time.

An increasingly stout upper level ridge of high pressure developing from Texas eastward along & just north of the Gulf Coast will insure an eventual turn to the west taking "Ingrid" inland over coastal Mexico anywhere from Sun. night to Mon.  The exact timing of the sharp turn to the west is still subject to change.

A number of oil wells have been -- or will be -- shut down for at least several days which could impact the price of oil for a couple of weeks.

This one stays far to the west of the First Coast & all of Fl. so no local impacts.

Model data below courtesy S. Fl. Water Management District:


"Humberto" has passed through some of the worst of the shear + is moving back over warmer sea surface temps.  Regeneration is indicated by virtually all forecast models over the next few days. Still...."Humberto" will stay over the open Atlantic & is of no threat to the First Coast or any of the U.S. as the tropical cyclone is eventually destined for the N. Atlantic.

Shear remains significant over much of the Atlantic Basin -- as can be seen below -- 20+ knots over parts of the Gulf of Mexico... 30-40+ knots over parts of the Caribbean... 50+ knots(!) over parts of the Central Atlantic.  

Tropical waves will continue to move off the coast of Africa though the frequency is lessening (typical in mid Sept.).  On the last satellite image below, one can see the frontal system moving into NW Africa that caused the initial sharp turn north by "Humberto".

Something to keep an eye on next week into the following week will be the SW Atlantic, Caribbean &/or Gulf of Mexico as a strong surface high pressure is forecast to move into the NE U.S. & N. Atlantic.  Such a set-up in the fall causes lower pressure to naturally develop to the south that can sometimes lead to tropical development. Indeed....some forecast models are now indicating such an occurrence near the Bahamas/W. Atlantic &/or possibly over the Gulf of Mexico.  Exact details this far our are -- of course -- almost impossible to predict, but I suspect there will be at least one storm, possibly two that will form.  Period of greatest concern appears -- at this time -- to be between Sept. 18th & 28th.

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