Hurricane "Isaac" Approaching New Orleans - Hurricane WARNING for the Gulf Coast including New Orleans to the W. Fl. Panhandle; 2 Waves in E. Atlantic..........."Isaac": (handy storm "quick look" from NOAA - click here)
** Local First Coast effects from "Isaac" continue to wane..........
** If planning travel the next few days to the Gulf Coast, stay alert to the latest forecasts...........
For the First Coast:
-- still somewhat breezy into Tue. night, especially at/near the coast.
-- Showers & a few t'storms will develop through Thu., especially from the middle of the day through the afternoon. I should emphasize that a tropical airmass will remain in place which will lead to additional heavy rain & storms even without "Isaac" in the immediate area.
-- the greatest
First Coast threat will be possible flooding (especially since the ground is saturated & streams & rivers are already running high) with an isolated severe storm possible.
"Isaac" has resumed a northwest heading & is gradually slowing as it follows the weakness in the atmosphere near the Gulf Coast. The storm continues to battle dry air entrainment but the pressure is slowly falling. In fact, a pressure reading of 28.79"/975 mb typically equates to a hurricane. However -- as pointed out by one of the NHC discussions -- every time "Isaac" develops what looks like a solid eye, dry air quickly erodes it. In any case, a hurricane is going to make landfall on the Louisiana coast.
As for the track....a landfall near New Orleans Tue. night-early Wed. is probable. The storm continues to have a wide wind field & storm surge will be significant not only near landfall but even well to the east of the center along the Gulf Coast. "Issac" should slow & turn a little little west near landfall which could result in some tremendous rainfall + the usual enhanced tornado threat. The storm could eventually move all the way north into parts of the Mississippi Valley/Ohio Valley which could help at least temporarily relieve the severe drought to some degree.
Click here for SE La. surface reports from "Hurricane City".
Radar imagery below courtesy S. Fl. Water Management District (impressive southerly tropical fetch):
The wave in the Eastern Atlantic still has some potential for development as it moves west/northwest though it does appear to be suffering from some shear & good deal of dry mid & upper level air & is already pretty far north -- north of 20 degrees N & should recurve over the Atlantic. Yet another wave is coming off the coast of Africa at a little latitude & moving west. At least some upper level ridging will rebuild across the Northern Atlantic during the next week, & the extent of this ridging (Bermuda high) will have a lot to do with how far west across the Atlantic this wave might -- or might not -- go. Some long range global forecast models do show what appears to be this wave moving into the Western Atlantic in about 8-10 days (Labor Day week).
Remember that taping windows is of NO VALUE & that it's too late to buy flood insurance now (30 day waiting period). From the Federal Alliance for Safe Homes (FLASH) [click here]:
FLASH® Encourages Families to Go Tapeless This Hurricane Season
New survey results revealed by FLASH at National Hurricane Conference show nearly seven out of 10 homeowners think taping windows helps in hurricanes
ORLANDO, FL (March 27, 2012) -- A survey commissioned by the Federal Alliance for Safe Homes (FLASH®) and conducted online by Harris Interactive during the period of January 25-27, 2012 found that nearly seven out of 10 homeowners still think that windows and glass doors should be taped in preparation for a hurricane. Masking tape, duct tape, window film and specially marketed “hurricane tape” are insufficient and potentially dangerous substitutions for tested and approved hurricane shutters, impact-resistant windows or properly installed temporary, emergency plywood shutters. This is why FLASH is determined to bust the dangerous window taping myth and is encouraging Americans to Go Tapeless this hurricane season as a part of its hurricane preparedness initiative, the Great Hurricane Blowout (Blowout).
Ideal family and home protection follows when all windows and openings (entry doors, garage doors, gable end vents, etc.) are covered with tested and approved impact-resistant coverings or constructed of impact-resistant materials. Even installing plywood shutters can be a reliable temporary option in an emergency. But make no mistake – taping is not adequate to provide hurricane protection.
“Today’s marketplace is full of tested and approved methods and products to protect families and homes from hurricanes,” said FLASH President and CEO Leslie Chapman-Henderson. “Yet just last year, Hurricane Irene provided stark evidence that too many homeowners are clinging to a belief that masking tape on glass is a good preparedness activity. The only thing worse than no hurricane protection is the wrong hurricane protection, and that is why we are launching Go Tapeless all across America today.”
This new element of the Blowout, a first-of-its-kind hurricane preparedness campaign launched by FLASH in 2010 will educate families about the risks of taping up in advance of a storm and provide the necessary resources to help them prepare. By joining the Blowout, families can learn about the best methods to protect their homes and families. They can also pledge to join the ranks of “Tapeless” Americans this hurricane season.
Families can visit ** here ** to learn – before the first storm arrives – how preparedness will allow them to “breathe easy” knowing that they are ready for hurricane season.
