"Isaac" In the Gulf of Mexico - Hurricane WARNING for the Gulf Coast including New Orleans to the W. Fl. Panhandle; 2 Waves in E. Atlantic..........."Isaac": (handy storm "quick look" from NOAA - click here)
** Outer bands from "Isaac" will produce scattered showers tonight & bands of heavy showers & t'storms Tue..........
** If planning travel the next few days to the Gulf Coast, stay alert to the latest forecasts...........
Models are finally coming into some agreement on near or just east of New Orleans for landfall late Tue.-Tue. night. The First Coast will continue to see some fringe effects & -- in the end -- total rainfall will be heavy to very heavy the next few days due to the tropical airmass overspreading the area. While this will not likely be a major flood event for most, localized flooding could still be significant. Midday & afternoon t'storms Tue.-Thu. could pack more of a wallop than the effects from "Isaac".
IF the current forecast path proves accurate, the First Coast will endure mainly fringe effects including heavy rain & isolated tornadoes:
-- onshore breezy east/southeast winds will gradually diminish but still gusty, especially near the coast causing rougher seas & surf & a
high rip current risk at area beaches. Conditions will slowly improve Tue. & particularly at midweek.
-- Periods of rain & storms will pivot north/northwest across NE Fl. & SE Ga. Even with "Isaac" well to the west, a slug of tropical moisture will push northward & bring heavy rain at times. Rainfall through Tue. evening looks to average 1-2" across SE Ga., locally more near the coast...2-3", locally more across NE Fl., especially near the coast & closer to I-75. I should emphasize that a tropical airmass will remain in place Wed.-Fri. which will lead to additional heavy rain & storms even without "Isaac" in the immediate area.
-- the greatest
First Coast threat will be possible flooding (especially since the ground is saturated & streams & rivers are already running high) & isolated tornadoes, especially through Tue. A few severe storms will still be possible Tue., Wed. & Thu.
-- the strongest winds have occurred but occasional gusts could reach 25 mph in & near heavier showers & storms.
Our Jax NWS has posted a handy & interesting experimental product showing tropical cyclone wind speed probabilities -- click
here. For Fl. buoy reports, click
here.
"Isaac" has bent a little more northwest & is gradually slowing as it follows the weakness in the atmosphere near the Gulf Coast. In advance of "Isaac" is very warm ocean water with deep oceanic heat content. The storm is gradually increasing & should hit the Gulf Coast as a hurricane.
As for track....a generally northwest movement should continue before there's enough weakening in the upper level ridge to allow a more northward move. Forecast models have generally come into decent agreement near or a little either way of New Orleans. It seems a landfall Tue. afternoon or night from New Orleans to Pascagoula is the most likely scenario which will be a test for New Orleans & its new levees depending on the orientation of the flow around the hurricane upon its approach to the Gulf Coast. Heavy rain will add to the flooding storm surge woes. "Isaac" should be moving slower by landfall adding to the rainfall potential. The storm could move all the way north into parts of the Mississippi Valley/Ohio Valley which could help at least temporarily relieve the severe drought to some degree.
Anyone traveling to the Keys &/or S. Fl. the Gulf Coast should stay tuned to the latest forecasts. Click here for SE La. surface reports from "Hurricane City".
Radar imagery below courtesy S. Fl. Water Management District (impressive southerly tropical fetch):
The wave in the Eastern Atlantic still has some potential for development as it moves west/northwest though it does appear to be suffering from some shear & good deal of dry mid & upper level air & is already pretty far north -- north of 20 degrees N. Yet another wave is coming off the coast of Africa at a little latitude & moving west. At least some upper level ridging will rebuild across the Northern Atlantic during the next week, & the extent of this ridging (Bermuda high) will have a lot to do with how far west across the Atlantic this wave might go. Some long range global forecast models do show what appears to be this wave moving into the Western Atlantic in about 8-10 days (Labor Day week).
Remember that taping windows is of NO VALUE & that it's too late to buy flood insurance now (30 day waiting period). From the Federal Alliance for Safe Homes (FLASH) [click here]:
FLASH® Encourages Families to Go Tapeless This Hurricane Season
New survey results revealed by FLASH at National Hurricane Conference show nearly seven out of 10 homeowners think taping windows helps in hurricanes
ORLANDO, FL (March 27, 2012) -- A survey commissioned by the Federal Alliance for Safe Homes (FLASH®) and conducted online by Harris Interactive during the period of January 25-27, 2012 found that nearly seven out of 10 homeowners still think that windows and glass doors should be taped in preparation for a hurricane. Masking tape, duct tape, window film and specially marketed “hurricane tape” are insufficient and potentially dangerous substitutions for tested and approved hurricane shutters, impact-resistant windows or properly installed temporary, emergency plywood shutters. This is why FLASH is determined to bust the dangerous window taping myth and is encouraging Americans to Go Tapeless this hurricane season as a part of its hurricane preparedness initiative, the Great Hurricane Blowout (Blowout).
Ideal family and home protection follows when all windows and openings (entry doors, garage doors, gable end vents, etc.) are covered with tested and approved impact-resistant coverings or constructed of impact-resistant materials. Even installing plywood shutters can be a reliable temporary option in an emergency. But make no mistake – taping is not adequate to provide hurricane protection.
“Today’s marketplace is full of tested and approved methods and products to protect families and homes from hurricanes,” said FLASH President and CEO Leslie Chapman-Henderson. “Yet just last year, Hurricane Irene provided stark evidence that too many homeowners are clinging to a belief that masking tape on glass is a good preparedness activity. The only thing worse than no hurricane protection is the wrong hurricane protection, and that is why we are launching Go Tapeless all across America today.”
This new element of the Blowout, a first-of-its-kind hurricane preparedness campaign launched by FLASH in 2010 will educate families about the risks of taping up in advance of a storm and provide the necessary resources to help them prepare. By joining the Blowout, families can learn about the best methods to protect their homes and families. They can also pledge to join the ranks of “Tapeless” Americans this hurricane season.
Families can visit ** here ** to learn – before the first storm arrives – how preparedness will allow them to “breathe easy” knowing that they are ready for hurricane season.
