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"Jerry" In "No Man's Land"

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Updated: 10/01/2013 8:21 am
Weak "Jerry" in the Atlantic... Active Wave Still in the Caribbean.......

"Jerry" remains far out in the Central Atlantic.  A large trough of low pressure over the W. Atlantic will soon be reinforced & should pick up the #11 (possibly a tropical storm by then) late in the week & insure a northward then northeast turn & acceleration.  This one stays far out over the open Atlantic.

Satellite imagery above shows the active tropical wave continuing in the Central/Southern Caribbean & is crawling to the northwest.  For the moment, shear is strong over the Central Caribbean (see image below) but will subside some during the upcoming week as the wave slowly moves into the NW Caribbean & Southern Gulf of Mexico.  This wave has the potential to slowly develop.  Both the GFS & European forecast models "acknowledge" this wave but are showing little model run to run consistency.  How sharp an eventual northward turn is (or is not) will come down to an upper level trough that will move into the Eastern U.S. late in the week & the weekend.  Recent trends have been for the upper trough to be slower thereby slowing the northward move of the wave.  Models have also trended (fairly consistently so) to a weak system, possibly little more than a surface trough or weak low pressure (tropical depression/low end tropical storm).  But his remains a wave to watch with at least some potential for long term development.  The longer the wave manages to stay over the Caribbean &/or Gulf of Mexico, the more worrisome more significant development will become.  

Even without significant development, it appears tropical moisture will flow northward in association with the wave -- in tandem with a cool front -- enhancing the heavy rain potential for the First Coast by the weekend into early next week.

The image below shows shear across the Atlantic Basin which is decreasing right now in the vicinity of the Caribbean wave.  Shear increases again across the Central/Northern Gulf which could be a contributing factor to a weaker system by the weekend.

Model plots below courtesy S. Fl. Water Management District:

A pretty strong tropical wave has come off the coast of Africa.  Early indications are that this wave will turn north fairly soon & also encounter shear.  We can probably just about close the door this season on long track Cape Verde storms.

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