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"Karen" Remnants Over Fl.

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Updated: 10/08/2013 8:20 am
"Karen" Remnants Over Fl. Headed into W. Atlantic....... 

FOR THE FIRST COAST: 

** Bands of showers, locally heavy "pinwheeling" west/southwest on the backside of the circulation across NE Fl./SE Ga. favoring the I-95 corridor to the beaches.

** some additional locally heavy rain, especially where rain bands manage to set up though this heavy rain -- like Mon. -- will be quite localized.  I do expect some uptick in the rain bands, however Tue. afternoon/evening. 

Infrared satellite imagery shows a strong band of convection along a cold front moving into Fl. & the W. Atlantic.

The surface map below shows the surface low pressure - a weak reflection of "Karen" moving offshore east of Fl.  The upper level disturbance driving the low is moving into Fl. & will eventually become absorbed by the larger upper level trough over the Eastern U.S.  So the surface low is not likely deepen much as it turns more north just off the east coast then eventually turns more northeast once at about the latitude of the Virginia/N. Carolina border.

So bands of showers -- heavy at times -- will continue through Tue. evening then become more scattered & less significant -- as a whole -- by Wed.



Water vapor satellite images below showing the vast area of very dry air that is working south & east behind the cold front.  This drier air arrives over the First Coast by Thu./Fri. squashing most of the rain except -- perhaps -- for a few lingering coastal shower due to onshore northeast winds.

Radar imagery below courtesy S. Fl. Water Management District:

3-day total rainfall forecast with the heaviest rain shifting up the U.S. east coast with the upper level system.  There will be some locally heavy rain for the First Coast through Tue. night:


The satellite imagery below shows the mature upper level storm system moving into Canada hat's driving the cold front eastward (note t'storms north-south along the front).

An upper level low with weak surface low pressure remains hundreds of miles east of the Bahamas in the Central Atlantic with quite a bit of t'storm activity.  Little or no tropical development is likely. 

A pair of tropical waves have moved off the coast of Africa & seemingly merged.  There is some evidence of banding features but overall convection is not very organized.  There is some potential for a late season Cape Verde tropical cyclone, but the system should not manage to make a lot of progress west across the Atlantic as the wave gets steered north in the long term. 

Sometimes meteorologists use "telleconnections" to try to come up with a general long range forecast.  The map below from CIMSS (Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Studies) shows several tropical cyclones in the W. Pacific.  One has already made landfall & is dissipating over China.... a second quite strong typhoon "Danas" is in the NW Pacific & will curve north then northeast to near & just northwest of Japan & not far from Korea.  A third disturbance -- an "invest" area is in the Bay of Bengal west of Thailand. These developments could be a clue that a tropical cyclone could be somewhere in the W. Atlantic in about 2 weeks.  Time will tell, & this type of forecasting certainly isn't perfect(!).

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