Large Upper Low Over Central Atlantic

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Updated: 9/20/2012 10:43 am
"Nadine" Hanging on in E. Atlantic; Large Low in Central Atlantic....

"Nadine"  is still in the E. Atlantic over marginal sea surface temps. with a good deal of shear. The storm will drift south & southeast & could be extratropical at just about any time.  However, if it can get far enough south, it could survive longer. Heavy rain & gusty winds will batter parts of the Azore Islands through much of the rest of the week.

Meanwhile...a large area of disorganized convection is over the Central Atlantic & is associated with a cold core surface low & upper level low.  Some slow subtropical or tropical development is not out of the question as the system moves slowly west/northwest.  In the long run, this system should get steered north well to the east of the U.S. thanks to the persistent strong trough in or near the N.E. U.S. &/or NW Atlantic.

Another area to watch during the next week or two will be the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean &/or SW Atlantic as an old frontal boundary/surface trough will set up shot in this region for an extended period occasionally reinforced by passing upper level troughs of low pressure.  Surface pressures will be quite high across the NE U.S. & NW Atlantic, so the atmosphere might respond by developing low pressure to the south.  Nothing concrete to hang one's hat on at the moment but something to watch in this type of pattern + such an occurrence is not unusual later in the season.


Still a few mostly weak tropical waves moving off the coast of Africa from time to time, but the clock is ticking on Cape Verde development, & the waves are showing little organization.

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