First Alert Weather Alert: Flood Warning expires at 10:04 PM on 4/24, issued at 10:04 PM Blackshear, GA | Bristol, GA | Mershon, GA | Millwood, GA

"Lorenzo" Accelerating E/NE

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Updated: 10/23/2013 7:58 am
Tropical storm "Lorenzo" is already under the influence of prevailing westerlies & an approaching upper level trough resulting in:
(1) an acceleration east/northeast over the open Atlantic.....

(2) westerly shear that is pushing virtually all of the convection -- albeit strong & well organized convection -- to the east/northeast of the center.

The storm will continue to accelerate to the east/northeast harmlessly over the Atlantic becoming a remnant low by late week.

The much anticipated, well-advertised cold front is plowing south & east deep into the Gulf & SW Atlantic.  The front will eventually sweep through the Gulf & enter the Northern Caribbean by Fri. where it'll finally stall over the weekend.  This stalled front might be an area to watch for possible tropical development late in the month over the Caribbean.  A cluster of convection has formed in the SW Gulf, but we'll have to see if there is any staying power.

Sometimes meteorologists use "telleconnections" (in this case over the W. Pacific) to try to come up with a general long range forecast for potential tropical development as well as possible whole sale changes in the upper level weather pattern over the U.S.  

"Francisco" will recurve near Japan through early next week as the storm weakens.  Other tropical cyclones will be developing in the W. Pacific over the coming days (see the 2nd image below).

"Lekima" is a super typhoon -- Cat. 5 -- to the east of "Francisco" & will recurve farther to the east staying well east of Japan.

"Raymond" in the E. Pacific off the coast of Mexico is gradually weakening. Heavy rain has caused flooding in & near Acapulco but conditions will slowly improve as "Raymond" begins to move west away from Mexico.  A combination of shear & upwelling will maintain the weakening trend the next few days.

The telleconnection indicates the potential for tropical development in or near the Caribbean &/or SW Atlantic within the next couple weeks though forecast models have generally lacked a consistent signal.  But the GFS model has started to fairly consistently show the development of a tropical cyclone in the Caribbean late in the month to -- at times -- early Nov. but with a wide range of intensity & location (not surprising so far in advance).  Pretty consistent significant troughing will eventually evolve over the Central or Eastern U.S. which could be a key to when/where & how strong any tropical disturbance might be in addition where such a development might track.  However, the developments (typhoons) over the W. Pacific signify a likely buckling of the jet stream over the E. Pacific & U.S. next week possibly leading to the the trough shifting back to the Western &/or Central U.S. by Halloween.

Surface pressures remain generally low & sea surface temps. are plenty warm.

The W. Pacific is full of activity & "invest" areas:

"Raymond" in the E. Pacific off the Mexico coast:


"Francisco":


"Lekima":

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