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"Lorenzo" Forms Over the Central Atlantic

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Updated: 10/21/2013 7:06 pm
The disturbance over the Central Atlantic has become tropical storm "Lorenzo" & is well to the southeast of Bermuda.  The storm has rapidly organized.  The band of clouds visible below on the IR satellite image is a cold front to the northwest of "Lorenzo" & will eventually guide the disturbance north then northeast.  There will likely be some additional strengthening before the storms has to battle considerable shear later in the week.  In any case...the "Lorenzo" stays over the open Atlantic & is of no threat to Bermuda & certainly not the U.S.

A cold front is moving into the Gulf & SE U.S.  The front will eventually sweep through the Gulf & enter the Northern Caribbean -- about midweek -- where it'll finally stall by next weekend.  This stalled front might be an area to watch for possible tropical development late in the month.

Sometimes meteorologists use "telleconnections" to try to come up with a general long range forecast for potential tropical development.  "Francisco" -- once a Cat. 5 super tyhoon -- will recurve very near -- or over extreme eastern -- Japan by late in the week as the storm weakens.  Other tropical cyclones will be developing in the W. Pacific over the coming days (see the 2nd image below) + "Raymond" has formed in the E. Pacific west of Mexico becoming a hurricane after a rapid intensification cycle Sunday-Sun. night.  A hurricane WATCH & tropical storm WARNING have been issued for parts of the Pacific coast of Mexico including Acapulco though it appears the hurricane will eventually turn west away from Mexico.  A combination of shear & upwelling should induce weakening within a few days.

The telleconnection indicates the potential for tropical development in or near the Caribbean &/or SW Atlantic within the next couple weeks though forecast models are showing little of the sort...or at least are lacking a consistent signal.  The GFS model has recently occasionally shown some possible development not too far from the Yucatan Peninsula.  Deep & strong upper level troughing is forecast to eventually evolve over the Central or Eastern U.S., & this development might be key to when/where & how strong any tropical disturbance might be in addition where such a development might track.

Surface pressures remain generally low & sea surface temps. are plenty warm.

"Raymond" in the E. Pacific off the Mexico coast:


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