First Alert Weather Alert: Flood Warning expires at 10:03 PM on 4/23, issued at 10:03 PM Fort White, FL | Lake City, FL | Lulu, FL

"Lorezo" Becomes Remnant Low

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Updated: 10/25/2013 7:58 am
"Lorenzo" has become a remnant low with occasional bursts of convection over the open Atlantic far to the east of Bermuda.  The low will become absorbed by a strong approaching upper level trough & surface cold front & continue to the northeast.  The last NHC advisory was issued late Thu.

The strong cold front that rolled across the First Coast is slowing as it approaches the Caribbean.  This front will be a focus for possible tropical development.

As I've been alluding to for more than a week.... sometimes meteorologists use "telleconnections" (in this case over the W. Pacific) to try to come up with a general long range forecast for potential tropical development as well as possible whole sale changes in the upper level weather pattern over the U.S.  

* "Francisco" is recurving south of Japan & will move east of Japan as the storm continues to weaken.  No major impact is anticipated for the main island of Japan.

* "Lekima" is a major typhoon to the east of "Francisco" & will recurve farther to the east staying well east of Japan.

"Raymond" in the E. Pacific off the coast of Mexico is gradually weakening. Heavy rain has caused flooding in & near Acapulco but conditions will slowly improve as "Raymond" begins to move west away from Mexico.

The telleconnection indicates the potential for tropical development in or near the Caribbean &/or SW Atlantic within the next couple weeks though forecast models have generally lacked a consistent signal.  But the GFS model has started to fairly consistently show the development of a tropical cyclone in the Caribbean late in the month to -- more frequently now -- early Nov. but with a wide range of intensity & location (not surprising so far in advance).  Pretty consistent significant troughing will eventually evolve over the Central or Eastern U.S. which could be a key to when/where & how strong any tropical disturbance might be in addition where such a development might track.  However, the developments (typhoons) over the W. Pacific signify a likely buckling of the jet stream over the E. Pacific & U.S. next week possibly -- & likely -- leading to the mean [avg.] trough shifting back to the Western &/or Central U.S. by Halloween & beyond.

Surface pressures remain generally low & sea surface temps. are plenty warm.  I would be surprised if tropical cyclone genesis did not occur in the Caribbean between Halloween & the 10th or so of Nov.

Global tropical acitivity:

"Raymond" in the E. Pacific now moving west away from the Mexico coast:



On a historic tropical note: "Sandy" was making its march from the Caribbean to the SW Atlantic one year ago.  The storm first hit Jamaica then Eastern Cuba...the Bahamas...rolled north through the W. Atlantic passing well to the east of Jax on Oct. 27th before becoming a massive extratropical storm that turned west making landfall Oct. 29th on the coast of New Jersey.  "Sandy" produced a historical storm surge on the coast of N.Y. & Jersey while generating heavy snow far inland.  The 72 U.S. deaths was the greatest death toll from a landfalling named storm -- outside of the Southern U.S. -- since "Agnes" in 1972.  Click ** here ** for a NASA summary... ** here ** for a NHC summary.

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