Low Pressure East of the Bahamas... Weak Wave into the Gulf of Mexico
The last advisory has been issued on "Humberto" in the N. Atlantic as the system becomes extratropical & merges with a cold front.
Low pressure has formed east of the Bahamas & has the potential to become tropical or subtropical over the weekend. Movement will be to the northeast over the open Atlantic - no threat to the U.S.
The satellite image below shows the developing low pressure south of Bermuda & east of the Bahamas while an early autumn cold front accompanied by showers & storms stretches from the Great Lakes to Texas. This front will move east through the weekend....stall near the Gulf Coast/N. Gulf of Mexico & across N or Central Fl. by early next week. Tropical moisture will flow north & east ahead of the front enhancing the heavy rain potential. Low pressure might also form in the Northern Gulf along the front & move east/northeast. This low might acquire some form of tropical characteristics next week.
Something to keep an eye on all the way into next week will continue be the Western Atlantic, Caribbean &/or Gulf of Mexico as a strong surface high pressure is forecast to move into the NE U.S. & N. Atlantic. I mentioned last week that such a set-up in the fall can be classic for mid to late season tropical development because lower pressure has to naturally develop to the south which is now occurring. Surface pressures are quite low all across the area which is probably why forecast models are having trouble narrowing down a solution on developments during the next 7-10 days. The models have been popping up low pressure -- or multiple lows -- in one run then something very different in the next model run. Consistency between models -- as well as from one cycle to next within themselves -- leads to low confidence in the details at this point. It looks like there may be 2 to possibly 3 general areas of development:
(1) east of the Bahamas (mentioned above) that will then move north/northeast into the Central Atlantic. This system would have little or no impact on the First Coast or any of the U.S. as it looks now........
(2) the Gulf of Mexico with a slow move northeast (also mentioned above)
(3) low pressure or a tropical disturbance/wave that lags behind over or near the Western Gulf of Mexico.
The pattern is quite complicated. There are indications that -- in the end -- there may be 2 distinct areas of low pressure that emerge from the Gulf. One would head northeast to near the Gulf Coast or Fl. early next week then into the W. Atlantic. The second would form in the W. Gulf & slowly move north or perhaps NE through next week.
LOCALLY....For the First Coast....it looks like we have the potential for heavy rain late in the weekend into parts of next week.
Forecast model plots courtesy S. Fl. Water Management District:
A few tropical waves now coming off Africa. It's possible we're seeing an early end to the Cape Verde season....at least as far as long track tropical cyclones are concerned.