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Low Pressure W. Atlantic, Wave E. Atlantic

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Updated: 10/11/2013 7:30 am
Non-tropical Low in the W. Atlantic... Wave E. Atlantic... Multiple Typhoons W. Pacific 

A non-tropical low is over the W. Atlantic (helped absorb the remnants of "Karen"). This low will sit & spin over the W. Atlantic & could try to -- at times -- take on subtropical characteristics but significant development is unlikely.  The low will slowly shift south then southeast bringing a return of onshore flow to the First Coast by late Sun./Mon. with a few coastal/near coast showers + cooler temps. 


The surface map below shows the cold front has pushed far to the south of the First Coast & has become stationary.  The W. Atlantic surface low is east of Va./N. Carolina.



A tropical wave remains over the E. Atlantic west of the Cape Verde Islands.  There is some potential for a late season Cape Verde tropical cyclone, but the system should not manage to make a lot of progress west across the Atlantic as the wave gets steered north in the long term & encounters an increasingly hostile environment. 

Sometimes meteorologists use "telleconnections" to try to come up with a general long range forecast.  The map below from CIMSS (Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Studies) shows several tropical cyclones in the W. Pacific.  One is "Phailin" strengthening in the Bay of Bengal forecast to come ashore in India as a super typhoon Cat. 5 over the weekend.  A second -- "Nari" -- is moving into the Northern Philippines as a Cat. 3 typhoon & will then move into Vietnam several days later. Yet another soon-to-be typhoon -- "Wipha" -- will be farther to the east with a re-curvature east of Japan in the long run. 

These developments -- along with an increase in tropical activity in the E. Pacific --  could be a clue that tropical development could be somewhere in the W. Atlantic in about 2 weeks.  Time will tell, & this type of forecasting certainly isn't perfect(!).  Long range forecast models, however, are not showing much development at this time over any part of the Atlantic Basin with the exception of the current wave in the E. Atlantic which should recurve.  Surface pressures will generally be low over the Caribbean & SW Atlantic, so it's an area to watch.

"Phailin":

"Nari":

"Whipa":

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