"Isaac" Remnants Dropping into the South; "Leslie" Hammered by Shear; ..."Michael" (Not Buresh) Develops in E. Atlantic...........
***** A moderate to high rip current risk at First Coast beaches due to easterly swells from "Leslie" through at least Thu. *****
The remnant low/upper level disturbance that was "Isaac" is moving through the Tennessee Valley & will soon approach the Gulf Coast. "Ivan" made a somewhat similar loop in 2004 (see 4th & 5th images below). It doesn't appear a surface low will accompany the disturbance, but the upper level energy could enhance showers & t'storms mid to late week. Forecast models have now pretty unanimously jumped onboard in developing a surface low over the Central &/or Northeast Gulf of Mexico late this week as the disturbance returns to the warm water. Based on history ("Ivan" in 2004), if another tropical cyclone were to develop & could be traced to what was "Isaac", it would again be named "Isaac". Models do not develop a strong low, but this is something to watch as there could also be eventual interaction with a strong upper level trough that will move into the Eastern U.S. This trough could enhance the low in the Gulf. Eventual movement should be to the east/northeast with the potential for heavy rain for the First Coast (& much of the Southeast U.S. & Gulf Coast) by Fri. into Sat. In fact, heavy rain is already occurring -- & will continue -- over much of the Tennessee Valley & Gulf Coast for the better part of this week. Click here
for updated storm summaries on 'Isaac" from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.
IVAN'S TRACK IN 2004:
has been putting up a good fight against moderate to strong shear & is now really starting to show the effects of the persistent shear
. Strong shear & some dry air will hammer away at the cyclone the next couple days as "Leslie" is sandwiched between a compact but strong upper low in the Bahamas & an upper level trough to Leslie's northeast over the Central Atlantic. Shear will relax starting midweek which could allow for significant strengthening Thu.-Fri. into the weekend. The upper level trough tugging "Leslie" north/northwest now will not entirely pick up the cyclone leaving "Leslie" in a weak steering flow midweek which will cause the storm to stall at or just north of Jacksonville's latitude in the Central Atlantic. There could be some jog west at that point but early indications are that "Leslie" will still get steered north then northeast in time. Still a long way out with plenty that can change. And if we look at the W. Pacific last week, the 2nd typhoon moved to the China coast west & southwest of Japan, so we'll have to beware of a farther west track in the long run than forecast models are currently indicating. All will hinge on the timing & intensity of what looks to be a strong upper level trough that will dig into the Eastern U.S. late this week into the weekend. "Leslie" should start to increase its forward speed to the north or north/northwest as the trough approaches. This move north could be helped by an upper low near Florida as the upper low moves east/northeast, though -- in the long run -- the expansive "Leslie" circulation could end up absorbing the upper low. Very rough surf will likely affect New England this weekend & parts of Nova Scotia &/or Newfoundland could be directly impacted late in the weekend into early next week.
In any case... "Leslie" will be strong enough & large enough to send an easterly swell to First Coast beaches this week increasing the rip current risk.
Tropical depression #13 has become "Michael" (not Buresh!) in the E. Atlantic. This satellite-derived system is tiny but has increased quite a bit in organization since its inception Mon. The storm is likely to only move very slowly to the north & is no immediate threat to any land areas. On a historical note....only 2005 & 2011 had the 13th tropical storm before Sept. 4th.
A wave in the far E. Atlantic well south of "Michael" & southeast of "Leslie" at a much lower latitude has recently flared up. This wave will move just about due west the next few days. Other waves will start to come off Africa with renewed vigor by the weekend into next week.