First Alert Weather Alert: Flood Warning expires at 8:00 PM on 4/28, issued at 10:03 AM Bryceville, FL | Callahan, FL | Fernandina Beach, FL | Glen Saint Mary, FL

Moisture W. Gulf/W. Caribbean

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Updated: 11/14/2013 7:42 am
The strong cold front is plowing east across the Atlantic but has lost its southern push stalling from the Fl. Straits westward across the Central/Southern Gulf of Mexico.  Moisture is pooling near & south of the front over the W. Gulf & Caribbean & will stream north & east the next few days bringing an almost tropical feel to the air for the First Coast.  Weak disturbance -- mostly aloft -- will move from the Caribbean & Gulf to the northeast in upper level southwest flow but little if any surface development of any consequence appears likely.


Surface pressures remain generally low & sea surface temps. are plenty warm over & near the Caribbean.  The time for slow tropical development in the Caribbean is running out but still possible. A series of strong surface high pressures will continue to move across the Northern U.S. into the NW Atlantic.  This steady dose of higher pressure will potentially induce low pressure far to the south over or near the SW Atlantic &/or Caribbean which could in turn lead to some kind of tropical or subtropical development.  Again....this is completely a pattern recognition forecast & there are few if any forecast models indicating such -- for right now.


Global tropical activity finally quieter world-wide though a disturbed area is being monitored by Joint Typhoon Warning Center west of the Philippines that's moving into Vietnam.  This disturbance brought heavy rain to "Haiyan" ravaged areas of the islands but is now moving away.

Tropical disturbance is moving into Vietnam….

Check out the interesting mapping of the Philippines below courtesy ASI/NASA/JPL-Caltech (brought to my attention by Bob Brookens):

The technique is most sensitive to detecting destruction of the human-made environment. In the image, damage detected by radar is shown as an overlay on a Google Earth image. Areas in red reflect the heaviest damage to cities and towns in the storm’s path. The estimated intensity of damage is proportional to the opacity of the red. When the radar observes areas that have little to no destruction, its image pixels are transparent. The satellite data used to generate the map span the time frame from Aug. 19 to Nov. 11, 2013. Each pixel in the damage map measures approximately 33 yards (30 meters) across.

Get the full story ** here **.

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