"Nadine" Still in E.Atlantic... Malfunctioning Atlantic Satellite... El Nino Update....
Take note of the ragged cut-off & bad data over the far E. Atlantic. The problem is that the GOES-13 satellite is malfunctioning. Work is ongoing but for the time being the satellite -- GOES-15 -- that usually covers the Western U.S. & parts of the Pacific has been moved east to cover more of the Atlantic Basin. Click here for info. from the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Studies (CIMSS) & to view other satellite sectors.
"Nadine" is still in the far E. Atlantic & on its way to doing yet another anticyclonic (clockwise) loop. The storm could revisit or at least come fairly close to the Azores again sometime next week though the steering pattern is rather muddled & complicated near "Nadine".
The Atlantic is otherwise quiet but an area to watch will be the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean &/or SW Atlantic as an old frontal boundary/surface trough will set up shot in this region for an extended period occasionally reinforced by passing upper level troughs of low pressure. Surface pressures will be quite high across the Northern U.S. & NW Atlantic, so the atmosphere should respond by developing low pressure to the south. Forecast models are showing a cut off low developing near the Gulf Coast next week which could lead to gradual surface development in the Gulf, so we'll watch how that evolves in the coming days though early indications are that the low will be nontropical (at least initially).
Water temps. near the equatorial Pacific continue to warm pointing to development of the long expected El Nino. Once the avg. temp. is at least 0.5 degrees above avg. for 3 consecutive months, the El Nino will be "official". If the El Nino comes to fruition, the rest of our hurricane season (through Nov. 30) should have low numbers. We should also expect above avg. rainfall on the First Coast. The 2nd image below shows the forecast models' intensity on the upcoming El Nino & more of the models are now agreeing on at least a weak El Nino through the winter. Click here for the NOAA discussion.
