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New Hurricane Model from Coastal University

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Updated: 8/04/2013 6:28 am
The remnants of "Dorian" -- at least the mid & upper level circulation -- are east of the Carolina's & moving harmlessly northeast over the open Western Atlantic.  No reformation is likely. 

A huge area of dry mid & upper level air continues from the Caribbean east for hundreds of miles across the Atlantic.  In fact, Saharan dust has traveled west all the way to the Lesser Antilles & Puerto Rico.  Overall conditions remain unsuitable for significant tropical development as shear generally remains high too.

Shear is still strong over much of the Atlantic Basin exceeding 60 knots(!) over parts of the Caribbean...exceeding 40 knots over the SW Atlantic....& 20+ knots over the Gulf of Mexico....

Tropical waves are struggling as they move west off the coast of Africa.  Little development expected at this time with the few waves that are westbound.

Coastal Carolina University scientists announce new hurricane outlook model
Hurricane Genesis and Outlook (HUGO) Project offers landfall prediction
      CONWAY, S.C.  – A new hurricane outlook model system was unveiled today by scientists at Coastal Carolina University (CCU). The new model, called the Hurricane Genesis and Outlook (HUGO) Project, goes a step further than most other hurricane prediction instruments in that it offers landfall probability information. In addition to the seasonal outlook, this model system will predict the track and intensity of any incoming hurricane five days away from landfall.
      The HUGO hurricane seasonal outlook model is based on calculations of 22 climatological factors encompassing oceanic, atmospheric and shoreline activity. The model also considers detailed statistical data from previous Atlantic hurricanes going back to 1950, a methodology that has produced highly accurate track predictions in hindcasting tests conducted by the team at CCU.
      The HUGO model offers outlooks on both the U.S. East Coast and Gulf Coast. The probable number of landfalls is given in order of decreasing likelihood. According to the latest prediction, for both the East Coast and Gulf the most likely scenario for 2013 is 1 hurricane landfall, with 2 and 0 landfalls next in probability. (See attachment for more details.)
      The new model was developed by a group of climatological scholars of international standing led by Len Pietrafesa, former chair of the National Hurricane Center External Advisory Panel and now a member of the faculty of CCU’s School of Coastal & Marine Systems Science. Other members of the CCU team are Shaowu Bao, a computational, deterministic numerical modeler specializing in meteorology and oceanography; Tingzhunag Yan, a meteorological oceanographer with a background in statistical modeling of climate and weather systems; and Paul Gayes, director of the School of Coastal & Marine Systems Science.
      Because the HUGO model system will provide specific data on probable storm surge and inundation as a hurricane approaches, including time, location and statistical representations of expected water depth along the coastline, it is expected to have special relevance for emergency management officials in their logistical planning in the event of evacuations.

Click ** here ** for more info on the HUGO project.  I'll be testing this model as we get deeper into the hurricane season.

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