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Non-tropical Low Over W. Atlantic

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Updated: 10/10/2013 7:58 am
Large Non-tropical Low in the W. Atlantic....... 

A non-tropical low is over the W. Atlantic (helped absorb the remnants of "Karen"). This low will sit & spin over the W. Atlantic & could try to -- at times -- take on subtropical characteristics but significant development is unlikely.  The low will meander through Sat. then slowly shift south bringing a return of onshore flow to the First Coast by Mon. with perhaps a few coastal showers. 

Infrared satellite imagery still shows a band of convection along a cold front moving into S. Fl. & the W. Atlantic having cleared virtually all of the Gulf of Mexico & edging into the NW Caribbean - a sure sign of autumn.

Satellite imagery below rom Wed. evening showing the cold front....

The surface map below shows the front that cleared out the First Coast well to the east as low pressure sits E/NE of the Carolina's.

A tropical wave remains over the E. Atlantic west of the Cape Verde Islands.  There is some potential for a late season Cape Verde tropical cyclone, but the system should not manage to make a lot of progress west across the Atlantic as the wave gets steered north in the long term & encounters an increasingly hostile environment. 

Sometimes meteorologists use "telleconnections" to try to come up with a general long range forecast.  The map below from CIMSS (Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Studies) shows a couple of tropical cyclones in the W. Pacific.  One is "Phailin" strengthening in the Bay of Bengal forecast to come ashore in India as at least a Cat. 2 over the weekend.  A second -- "Nari" -- is developing east of Manila & is forecast to hit the Northern Philippines as a Cat. 2 typhoon by Fri. 

These developments -- along with an increase in tropical activity in the E. Pacific --  could be a clue that tropical development could be somewhere in the W. Atlantic in about 2 weeks.  Time will tell, & this type of forecasting certainly isn't perfect(!).  Long range forecast models, however, are not showing much development at this time over any part of the Atlantic Basin with the exception of the current wave in the E. Atlantic which should recurve.  Surface pressures will generally be low over the Caribbean & SW Atlantic, so it's an area to watch.

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