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Nothing Organized in the Atlantic Basin

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Updated: 10/19/2013 8:06 pm
There are a few disturbances & tropical waves across the Central & South Atlantic but there is no organization & no development is anticipated anytime soon.

A cold front is moving into the Gulf & SE U.S.  The front will eventually sweep through the Gulf & enter the Northern Caribbean where it'll finally stall by next weekend.  This stalled front might be an area to watch for possible tropical development late in the month.

Sometimes meteorologists use "telleconnections" to try to come up with a general long range forecast for potential tropical development.  Powerful "Francisco" -- a Cat. 5 super tyhoon has formed & is now moving away from Guam in the W. Pacific.  The typhoon will move toward Japan by the end of the week but will be weakening.  Other tropical cyclones will be developing in the W. Pacific over the coming days + there's the potential for development in the E. Pacific west of Mexico.

The telleconnection indicates the potential for tropical development in or near the Caribbean &/or SW Atlantic within the next couple weeks though forecast models are showing little of the sort...or at least are lacking a consistent signal.  The GFS model has recently occasionally shown some possible development not too far from the Yucatan Peninsula.  Deep & strong upper level troughing is forecast to eventually evolve over the Central or Eastern U.S., & this development might be key to when/where & how strong any tropical disturbance might be in addition where such a development might track.

Surface pressures remain generally low & sea surface temps. are plenty warm.


"Francisco" (map courtesy Weather Underground):

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