No areas of concern in the Atlantic Basin...An upper level low remains over the Central Atlantic moving west several hundred miles east of the Bahamas. Any development with such a system would be slow at "best" & there are no indications of any related surface development as the systems zips to the west.
Much more active in the E. Pacific....
"Emilia" is now weakening over the open E. Pacific....
Yet another storm -- "Fabio" -- has developed in the far E. Pacific well off the coast of Mexico but -- like "Daniel" & "Emilia" during the past week -- will not threaten any land areas despite a northward turn early next week.
The equatorial Pacific continues to show signs of warming which gives credence to the notion that an El Nino may be in the offing. It's possible that this is a relatively short term, almost reactionary response to the signficant back-to-back La Nina's (cooling of the equatorial Pacific). If true, the hurricane season could show a fairly low number of storms in the Atlantic Basin -- compared to avg. -- for the last third to half of the season. We're already seeing signs of an increase in mid & upper level shear over the Atlantic Basin -- a hallmark of El Nino conditions. The map below shows the above avg. sea surface temps. extending west from S. America in the Pacific...the second diagram is the by models -- many of which indicate a developing El Nino that peak this fall into early winter. If accurate, the upshot is a lower number of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin (but has little to do with intensity - remember "Andrew") + a wet winter for the First Coast. Click here for a discussion by NOAA.
