The Atlantic Basin
is void of any organized tropical disturbances & -- for that matter -- has even quieted down from a convective standpoint.A weak wave
remains in the far Western Caribbean but interaction with land has weakend convection.A wave
approaching the Eastern Caribbean is being shredded by westerly shear so no development expected.
The global forecast pattern has significantly buckled dropping the jet stream over the E. Pacific & Western U.S. leading to the mean [avg.] trough shifting to the Western &/or Central U.S. for an extended period. This kind of pattern would have the potential to allow any tropical development near the Caribbean to have a tendency -- if something developed -- to move W/NW then more northward with time. But nothing of the sort expected anytime soon. Another transient but strong upper level trough will move into the Eastern U.S. during the upcoming week. Meanwhile…storminess moving eastward from the Pacific will continue so the persistent troughing will still -- overall -- remain over the Western U.S.
Surface pressures remain generally low & sea surface temps. are plenty warm over & near the Caribbean. I still believe the potential is there for a late season storm but, boy, there's nothing to hang one's hat on for the moment other than the "disturbed" areas or waves I mentioned at the top. A series of strong surface high pressures will continue to move across the Northeast U.S. into the NW Atlantic. This steady dose of higher pressure will potentially induce low pressure far to the south over or near the SW Atlantic &/or Caribbean which could in turn lead to some kind of tropical or subtropical development. Again....this is completely a pattern recognition forecast & there are few if any forecast models indicating such -- for right now...at least any development of much consequence.
Global tropical activity… once super typhoon "Haiyan" over the W. Pacific that hammered the Central Philippines Thursday-Friday is headed for Northeast Vietnam Sunday-Monday but as a weakening Cat. 1 or 2 storm. Click ** here ** for news updates, video & photos from CNN.
It looks like "Haiyan" will enter the Philippines near Butuan & south of Calbayon passing approximately 125 miles (200 km) to the south of Manila upon its exit from the islands.
Check out the incredible radar time lapse of the super typhoon as the storm plowed through the islands (courtesy Brian McNoldy, RSMAS/Univ. of Miami).