"Rafael" Moving Into SW Atlantic......
Take note of the ragged cut-off & bad data over the far E. Atlantic. The problem is that the GOES-13 satellite is malfunctioning. Work is ongoing but for the time being the satellite -- GOES-15 -- that usually covers the Western U.S. & parts of the Pacific has been moved east to cover more of the Atlantic Basin. Click here for info. from the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Studies (CIMSS) & to view other satellite sectors.
"Rafael" has some very cold cloud tops & much improved structure & should soon be our next Atlantic hurricane. The storm will be at about Jacksonville's latitude by Tue. but 1,000+ miles to the east. The upper level trough moving into the Eastern U.S./Western Atlantic (note clouds associated with the surface cold front from the Gulf to the east coast) will insure a north then northeast acceleration with a transition to extratropical later this week. There will be no impacts on the First Coast or any of the U.S....just some wave action for the Bahamas...& some gusty winds, heavy rain & rough seas & surf for Bermuda though it doesn't look like a direct hit for the island. Heavy rains over the Northern Caribbean islands will decrease by early Tue.
A large tropical wave is in the Eastern Atlantic well west/southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. There's some potential for slow development but given the time of year -- late in the hurricane season -- the chances for the wave to make it across the Atlantic are low. Still...it's something to watch if the wave can avoid recurvature since an upper level ridge will build over much of the W. Atlantic in 10-14 days.
In the E. Pacific....hurricane "Paul" is just about at its peak well south of the Baja of Ca. & is expected to move close to the peninsula the next couple days. Therefore, a tropical storm WATCH has been issued for a part of the west coast of the Baja. "Paul" should weaken quite rapidly the next few days.
