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"Raymond" Becomes a Hurricane Again in Pacific

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Updated: 10/27/2013 9:29 am
An autumn cold front is stretched out from the N. Atlantic to east of Bermuda to the SW Atlantic into Cuba & the extreme NW Caribbean with clusters of showers & t'storms all along the front but no tropical organization is evident.

The Caribbean has been unsettled with tropical waves moving W/NW.  One is near Belize...a second is moving into the Central Caribbean & a third is approaching the Lesser Antilles.  Any development would be slow to occur.

The strong cold front that rolled across the First Coast has become stationary near the Northern Caribbean.  This front will be an area to watch for possible tropical development.  Convection near the Gulf Coast is associated with an upper level low.

As I've been alluding to for more than a week.... sometimes meteorologists use "telleconnections" (in this case over the W. Pacific) to try to come up with a general long range forecast for potential tropical development as well as possible whole sale changes in the upper level weather pattern over the U.S.  

* "Francisco" has dissipated east of Japan.....

* "Lekima" has dissipated.

"Raymond" in the E. Pacific has reintensified. Heavy rain has caused flooding in & near Acapulco but conditions have improved as "Raymond" moves away.

The telleconnection indicates the potential for tropical development in or near the Caribbean &/or SW Atlantic within the next couple weeks though forecast models have generally lacked a consistent signal.  But the GFS model has started to fairly consistently show the development of a tropical cyclone in the Caribbean late in the month to -- more frequently now -- early Nov. but with a wide range of intensity & location (not surprising so far in advance).   The developments (typhoons) over the W. Pacific signify a likely buckling of the jet stream over the E. Pacific & U.S. over the next week or two possibly -- & likely -- leading to the mean [avg.] trough shifting to the Western &/or Central U.S. by the end of this month & beyond.

Surface pressures remain generally low & sea surface temps. are plenty warm.  I would be surprised if tropical cyclone genesis did not occur in the Caribbean between Halloween & the 10th or so of Nov.

Global tropical activity:

"Raymond" in the E. Pacific now moving west away from the Mexico coast but became a hurricane again Sat. night.  Though a sharp turn to the north is expected, "Raymond" will weaken before having a chance at again getting close to land:

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