Non-tropical Low Dropping South in the W. Atlantic... Sheared Wave Central Atlantic... Active Pacific
A non-tropical low
is -- as expected -- dropping south through the far Western Atlantic northeast of Jacksonville. This low will sit & spin over the W. Atlantic & slowly turn more southeast but will be close enough to bring a return of gusty onshore flow to the First Coast through Tue. with a few coastal/near coast showers + cooler temps. No tropical development of this system is expected.
The surface map below shows the weak surface low in the W. Atlantic well to the northeast of Jax.
A persistent tropical wave has moved into the Central Atlantic but is under the effects of strong shear a few hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Any development will be slow as the wave turns more north the next few days.
Another wave has just come off the coast of Africa southeast of the Cape Verde Islands but should face a similar fate to its predecessor.
A nontropical low is farther north near the coast of Africa.
Sometimes meteorologists use "telleconnections" to try to come up with a general long range forecast for potential tropical development. The map below from CIMSS (Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Studies) shows a couple of tropical cyclones in the W. Pacific + a couple of tropical storms in the E. Pacific.
* "Phailin" & slammed ashore in India Sat.
* A second -- "Nari" -- is moving into Vietnam.
* Yet another typhoon -- "Wipha" -- will be farther to the east with a re-curvature just east of Japan in the long run.
These developments -- along with the increase in tropical activity in the E. Pacific -- could be a clue that tropical development could be somewhere in the W. Atlantic in about 2 weeks. Time will tell, & this type of forecasting certainly isn't perfect(!). Long range forecast models, however, are not showing much development at this time over any part of the Atlantic Basin. Surface pressures will generally be low over the Caribbean & SW Atlantic, so it's an area to watch, but it's also getting late in the season. Having said that....sea surface temps. are still plenty warm -- well into the 80s.