"Isaac" Remnants into Ohio Valley; "Kirk" Weakening; "Leslie" has Mega Battle Against Shear & Dry Air...........
The remnant low/upper level disturbance that was "Isaac" is moving east into the Ohio Valley. Forecast models show the mid & upper level disturbance maintaining itself & dropping southeast then south across the Eastern U.S. next week possibly as far south as the Gulf Coast(!). "Ivan" made a somewhat similar loop in 2004 (see 4th & 5th images below). If the disturbance does return to the SE U.S., there is not likely to be a surface feature, but the upper level energy could enhance showers & t'storms during the middle of next week. There may also be possible interaction with an upper level cold core low near Fl. by the middle of the week. While no surface low is currently indicated by the forecast models, we'll have to watch for possible surface development near or just east of Fl. about Wed.-Thu. Click here
for updated storm summaries on 'Isaac" from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.
IVAN'S TRACK IN 2004:
is in for a battle for its very survival. Strong shear & some dry air will hammer away at the cyclone the next few days as "Leslie" is sandwiched between a compact but strong upper low in the Bahamas & an upper level trough to Leslie's northeast over the Central Atlantic. Assuming "Leslie" survives this hostile environment, conditions then become more favorable through the middle & end of the week. It still looks like "Leslie" will slow a great deal if not stall at about Jacksonville's latitude -- but 500+ miles to the east -- by the middle of the week. There could also be some jog west at that point but early indications are that "Leslie" will still get steered north then northeast in time. Still a long way out with plenty that can change. And if we look at the W. Pacific last week, the 2nd typhoon moved to the China coast west & southwest of Japan, so we'll have to beware of a farther west track in the long run than forecast models are currently indicating. All will hinge on the timing & intensity of what look to be a series of upper level troughs that move through New England & the Northwest Atlantic during the next week to 10 days.
In any case... "Leslie" could become strong enough & large enough to send an easterly swell to First Coast beaches this week increasing the rip current risk.
"Kirk" in the North Atlantic is feeling the effects of increasing shear & cooler sea surface temps. as the storm accelerates to the north/northeast. There will be no impact on any land areas.
The rest of the Atlantic Basin has gone quiet. The parade of tropical waves coming off Africa has eased (see last satellite image below), & it looks like we're in for a period of less activity -- from a tropical standpoint & excluding "Leslie", of course) -- in the Atlantic Basin that could last at least a couple of weeks. The one area to watch will be possible close-in development (to the U.S.) with the upper level trough that will be persistent over or near the east coast of the U.S. (as alluded to earlier in this discussion at the top).