First Alert Weather Alert: Flood Warning expires at 10:04 PM on 4/24, issued at 10:04 PM Blackshear, GA | Bristol, GA | Mershon, GA | Millwood, GA

Slow Gulf Development Possible

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Updated: 9/19/2013 8:01 am
Weakening "Humberto" Over Open N. Atlantic... Eyeing the Gulf of Mexico

"Humberto" has been struggling against shear + cooler sea surface temps. & is weakening as a front approaches from the west.  Some rejuvenation of "Humberto" is possible as the cyclone hooks up with the front & accelerates north/northeast, but this strengthening will be due to a transition to an extratropical low pressure system. There is no threat to the U.S.

Something to keep an eye on all the way into next week will be the SW Atlantic, Caribbean &/or Gulf of Mexico as a strong surface high pressure is forecast to move into the NE U.S. & N. Atlantic.  I mentioned last week that such a set-up in the fall can be classic for mid to late season tropical development because lower pressure has to naturally develop to the south which is now occurring. Surface pressure is quite low all across the area which is probably why forecast models are having trouble narrowing down a solution on developments during the next 7-10 days.  The models have been popping up low pressure -- or multiple lows -- in one run then something very different in the next model run.  Consistency between models -- as well as from one cycle to next within themselves -- leads to low confidence in the details at this point.  It looks like there may be 2 to possibly 3 distinct areas of development:

(1) east of the Bahamas that will then move north/northeast into the Central Atlantic.  This system would have little or no impact on the First Coast or any of the U.S. as it looks now........

(2) the Gulf of Mexico with a slow move northeast

(3) low pressure or a tropical disturbance that lags behind over or near the Western Gulf of Mexico.

The pattern is quite complicated.  There are indications that -- in the end -- there may be 2 distinct areas of low pressure that emerge from the Gulf.  One would head northeast to near the Gulf Coast or  Fl. late in the weekend/early next week then into the W. Atlantic.  The second would form in the W. Gulf & slowly move north or perhaps NE through much of next week. 

LOCALLY....For the First Coast....it looks like we're looking at the potential for heavy rain late in the weekend into early next week.


Forecast model plots courtesy S. Fl. Water Management District:

Very few tropical waves now coming off Africa.  It's possible we're seeing an early end to the Cape Verde season....at least as far as long track tropical cyclones are concerned.

In the E.Pacific...."Manuel" has been an interesting tropical cyclone.  The storm made landfall not far from Acapulco (where hundreds of tourists are stranded) as a strong tropical storm earlier in the week & quickly weakened only to re-emerge off the coast of Mexico near the extreme southeast Gulf of California.  "Manuel" then quickly strengthened into a hurricane Wed. & is now hugging the northwest coast of Mexico adjacent to the Gulf of California across (east) of the Baja.  The storm should weaken now due to interaction with land.  "Manuel" has caused widespread flooding & mudslides while -- at the same time -- "Ingrid" moved inland on the Gulf side of Mexico dumping heavy rain.  The death toll continues to rise & flash flooding will continue into the weekend on both coasts of Mexico.  It's possible the disturbance in the SW Gulf of Mexico could produce additional heavy rain over NE Mexico.

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