Strong Low Pressure to Develop W. Atlantic.......
A series of low pressure systems are moving along a stalled front stretched out across the Gulf Coast, N. Fl. & the SW Atlantic.
Eventually...a single, strengthening low pressure will develop E/NE of Jacksonville over the W. Atlantic. The ocean storm will intensify as it moves north not too far offshore from the east coast of the U.S. The GFS & European models have come into pretty decent agreement keeping the storm in the Atlantic but brushing New England with gusty winds & rain.
This ocean storm could acquire subtropical characteristics for a time before transitioning to extratropical over the NW Atlantic.
For the First Coast.... as the low move across N. Fl./S. Ga. into Wed. evening, there will the potential for heavy rain following by increasing onshore northeast winds Thu. & especially Fri.-Sat. as the ocean storm intensifies. At the beaches, there will be rough seas & surf & an elevated rip current risk.
-- overall -- remain quite low from the SW Atlantic to the Caribbean & Gulf of Mexico, so I still look for possible eventual tropical development in one of these areas over the next 1-2 weeks.
What few tropical waves are coming off Africa are less than impressive & are battling some shear. It's possible we've seen an early end to the Cape Verde season....at least as far as long track tropical cyclones are concerned. The early forecast concerns for a season with Cape Verde hurricanes will almost certainly go down as a "bust". Sea surface temps. have been plenty warm, but widespread significant shear for the majority of the last couple months managed to keep things in check. Dry mid & upper level air was a contributor, too, but I feel it was the shear that generally kept the deep tropics "under control".