An area of "disturbed weather"
is over the far SE Gulf of Mexico & NW Caribbean. The associated upper level disturbance is forecast to move north over the Eastern Gulf then into Fl. through Thu. but with no surface development.
Thunderstorm clusters will likely continue to wax & wane over & near the NW Caribbean/far Southern Gulf into at least the weekend near a stalled front. This area remains something to watch for possible slow surface low development.
Convection well to the east of the Bahamas is on the southern end of a front interacting with an upper level low -- no tropical development is expected.
Another cold front has moved through the Gulf & into the NW Caribbean.
The global forecast pattern has significantly buckled dropping the jet stream over the E. Pacific & Western U.S. leading to the mean [avg.] trough shifting to the Western &/or Central U.S. for an extended period. This kind of pattern would have the potential to allow for tropical development near the Caribbean that would have a tendency -- if something developed -- to move W/NW then more northward with time. But nothing of the sort expected anytime soon.
Surface pressures remain generally low & sea surface temps. are plenty warm over & near the Caribbean. I still believe the potential is there for a late season storm but, boy, there's nothing to hang one's hat on for the moment. A series of strong surface high pressures will continue to move across the Northeast U.S. into the NW Atlantic. This steady dose of higher pressure will potentially induce low pressure far to the south over or near the SW Atlantic &/or Caribbean which could in turn lead to some kind of tropical or subtropical development. Again....this is completely a pattern recognition forecast & there are few if any forecast models indicating such -- for right now...at least any development of much consequence.
Global tropical activity... "Haiyan" is intensifying over the W. Pacific & will hammer the Central Philippines by Thursday as a Cat. 5 super typhoon!
It looks like "Haiyan" will enter the Philippines near Butuan & south of Calbayon passing approximately 100 miles (160 km) to the south of Manila upon its exit from the islands.