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T.D. #9 Becomes "Humberto" in E. Atlantic

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Updated: 9/09/2013 8:41 am
T.D. #9 Strengthens into "Humberto"... "Gabrielle" remnants moving well east of Bahamas... 

The remnants of "Gabrielle" are still producing plenty of convection -- albeit disorganized -- well east of the Bahamas.  The remnants will continue to move north/northeast & will gradually become involved with an upper level trough & surface cold front over the Western Atlantic.  Some redevelopment is possible in the coming days, but the system should stay well east of the U.S.

There will be no impact on the First Coast or any of Florida....

Tropical depression #9 has become "Humberto".  The tropical cyclone will head west in the short term but then turn sharply northward remaining over the far E. Atlantic & nowhere close to the U.S.  There will be another jog to the west later this week but a full transit across the Atlantic is highly unlikely.  By late week, cooler sea surface temps + increasing shear should induce weakening.  In the meantime..."Humberto" will probably become the first Atlantic hurricane this year.  Depending on that timing, 2013 is on track to have the latest Atlantic Basin hurricane since the early to mid 1960s....as long as hurricane status is attained after 8am, Sept. 11th.

There is still a lot of convection over the Western Gulf of Mexico.  No signs of organization, but this area + the Caribbean might be an area to watch over the next couple weeks.  In fact, forecast models have been occasionally popping tropical development over or near the Bay of Campache by the weekend or early next week.

A large area of dry mid & upper level air (black & rust colored areas on the water vapor satellite image below) continues over the Central Atlantic.

Shear remains significant over much of the Atlantic Basin -- as can be seen below -- 30+ knots over the Gulf of Mexico... 20+ knots over parts of the Caribbean... 50+ knots(!) over the Central Atlantic.  Until & unless the shear relaxes, tropical cyclones will generally struggle in this environment.

Tropical waves will continue to move off the coast of Africa with some potential for gradual development over the E. Atlantic.  Something to keep an eye on later next week into the following week will be the SW Atlantic, Caribbean &/or Gulf of Mexico as a strong surface high pressure is forecast to move into the NE U.S.  With such a set-up in the fall, lower pressure naturally occurs to the south that can sometimes lead to tropical development.

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