It's the "official" start of the 2013 hurricane season. What is forecast to be an active 6 months ahead could get out of the gate quickly.
Eyes are on the Central & Eastern Gulf of Mexico & far NW Caribbean for much of the upcoming week. What's left of former hurricane "Barbara" is still stirring up t'storms near the Yucatan Peninsula & far SW Gulf of Mexico. Long range forecast models are indicating -- & have been for a while -- that weak low pressure will gradually develop somewhere between the Yucatan & Florida over the Gulf. The European model has shifted east & is in the neighborhood of the American GFS model which centers -- for the moment -- on the Eastern Gulf. It appears
that any development would be slow & generally weak & possibly more of a hybrid system. None the less, tropical moisture will get pulled north Mon.-Fri. enhancing the heavy rain threat for the First Coast & much of Fl. & the SE U.S. The 2 maps below show the change in the model forecasts from Thu. to Fri. Of course, there will likely be additional changes in the days ahead.
Below....see the seasonal forecasts from NOAA & Dr. Gray/Klotzbach @ Colorado St. followed by this season's Atlantic Basin names (the names are different for the E. Pacific where 2 storms have already been named).