"Rafael" Pouring on Caribbean Islands; "Patty" Dissipates....
Take note of the ragged cut-off & bad data over the far E. Atlantic. The problem is that the GOES-13 satellite is malfunctioning. Work is ongoing but for the time being the satellite -- GOES-15 -- that usually covers the Western U.S. & parts of the Pacific has been moved east to cover more of the Atlantic Basin. Click here for info. from the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Studies (CIMSS) & to view other satellite sectors.
"Patty" (not peppermint!) has weakened to a remnant low near/east of the Bahamas & there will be no regeneration. The last advisory from the NHC was issued late Sat. morning. The Central & SE Bahamas will still be subject to gusty winds & heavy showers & storms through the weekend.
"Rafael" has some very cold cloud tops over the Eastern/Northeast Caribbean indicating extremely heavy rainfall. Convection has been persistent & explosive near & especially east of the center which is causing the center to "jump" around some. Such erratic behavior within a disorganized tropical cyclone that has bursts of deep convection is not at all uncommon. "Rafael" will pound Puerto Rico & the Northern Caribbean Islands this weekend with very heavy rain, flooding & mudslides. Thanks to significant upper level troughing over the Eastern U.S./far W. Atlantic, "Rafael" will be no threat to the First Coast or any of the U.S. & will even manage to stay east of the Bahamas. There could be a threat to Bermuda during the early to middle part of the upcoming week. Southwesterly mid & upper level shear is why the majority of the convection is over the eastern part of the circulation. While this shear will weaken through the weekend, southwest shear will increase again next week due to the trough near the U.S. east coast. It still seems reasonable, however, that given other favorable conditions, "Rafael" will slowly strengthen on its journey N/NW through the Western Atlantic until the storm becomes extratropical later next week.