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Tracking a Couple of Tropical Waves

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Updated: 7/03/2013 12:20 pm
Stormy Gulf/NW Caribbean..... "Dalila" in the E. Pacific... Upper Level Trough Next Week Near Fl.

The infra-red satellite photo below is "colorful" thanks to deep tropical moisture combine with an upper level trough that is igniting numerous heavy showers & storms with cold cloud tops..

A couple of tropical waves are embedded in -- or nearby -- the messy mostly north/south oriented convection from the extreme NW Caribbean across the Eastern Gulf.  Forecast models still show no surface development but convection will continue to fire as the tropical wave moves northwest then bends more west with time as the upper level trough retrogrades & weakens.

The 3rd image below is a water vapor satellite & shows a strong upper level trough over the Central Atlantic.  Global forecast models have been insistent on a piece of this trough closing off & breaking off then getting caught up in strong easterly flow underneath strong upper level & surface high pressure to the north.  This so-called TUTT - tropical upper tropospheric trough - will have a cold core at first at least & move to the west reaching Fl. Mon. night-Tue.  By this time, the upper trough looks like it's core temp. will be more neutral.  In any case....surface development is not indicated by forecast models & is not likely to occur.  Subsidence on the west side of the TUTT will limit thunderstorms over the First Coast -- & much of Fl. -- Sun.-Mon.  But on the east side of the trough, the air will be more unstable accompanied by an increase in vertical velocities which should increase t'storms Tue.-Wed. across the local area. tropical development with this trough is expected.  Penn State's College of Earth & Mineral Sciences offers a very detailed discussion of TUTT's - click ** here **.

In the E. Pacific, "Dalila" is off the coast of Central MexicoThe compact storm packs a punch but is moving west/southwest away from Mexico.  Weakening should begin soon.

Another strong tropical wave is well to the east of "Dalila" just off the south coast of Mexico & W/NW of Central America.  This west/northwest moving way has the potential to develop over the far Eastern Pacific.

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