Tropical Depression #11 Forms Far in the Atlatic... Significant Wave in the Caribbean.......
The strong W. Atlantic low pressure system has developed south of Bermuda & is now far to the east of Jacksonville. The system will continue north/northeast & "local" Nor'easter effects (in combination with strong high pressure near the east coast well north of Jax) will lessen some for Sunday & even more so by Monday.
For the First Coast....
* gusty northeast winds averaging 15-25 mph but with gusts 30+ mph will occur at the beaches...10-20 mph inland.
* scattered mostly brief showers, especially closer to the coast into Monday
* rough seas & surf with dangerous rip currents through Sunday...slowly subsiding Mon.-Tue.
Wavewatch III from NOAA nicely shows the rough seas courtesy the W. Atlantic ocean storm -- click ** here ** to see the loop.
T.D. # 11 has formed in the Central Atlantic to the east of the W. Atlantic ocean
storm. The trough of low pressure helping to induce the ocean storm, will sweep off to the north of the system leaving t.d. #11 behind. But never fear...another trough will sweep into the Atlantic by midweek which should insure a northward turn & acceleration. This one stays out over the open Atlantic.
Satellite imagery above shows an active tropical wave in the Central/Southern Caribbean. For the moment, shear is strong over the Central Caribbean (see image below) but will subside early in the upcoming week. This wave has the potential to slowly develop. Both the GFS & European forecast models "acknowledge" this wave. The GFS develops a closed circulation next week with a pretty sharp turn north moving into Fl. late in the week. The European never closes the circulation & is a little farther west. How sharp the northward turn is (or is not) will come down to an upper level trough that will move into the Eastern U.S. late in the week. This remains a wave to watch with at least some potential for long term development.
A low latitude tropical wave is east of the Caribbean & moving W/NW. If the wave can gain enough latitude, some slow development is possible.
A fairly large tropical wave has come off the coast of Africa. Early indication are that this wave will turn north fairly soon & also encounter shear.