First Alert Weather Alert: Flood Warning expires at 8:00 PM on 4/28, issued at 10:03 AM Bryceville, FL | Callahan, FL | Fernandina Beach, FL | Glen Saint Mary, FL

Tropical Disturbance E. Pacific

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Updated: 11/01/2013 7:53 am
A cold front is pushing south & east & -- as is typical later in the fall -- will penetrate a little farther south [than past fronts] into the Caribbean before becoming stationary next week.

A tropical wave has moved into the Eastern Caribbean. Shear is strong & little or no short term development is likely.

The strong cold front is producing strong but linear convection across the Gulf.

The gray circular-like clouds on the satellite below are indicative of a dry, cool & stable atmosphere that's now pushing well south over the Central Atlantic (autumn is here!).

The global forecast pattern has significantly buckled as the jet stream over the E. Pacific & Western U.S. leading to the mean [avg.] trough shifting to the Western &/or Central U.S. later this week & beyond.  We still will see a trough move into the Eastern U.S. this weekend, but it will be progressive with the mean trough re-establishing over the Western U.S. next week.

Surface pressures remain generally low & sea surface temps. are plenty warm over & near the Caribbean.  I would be surprised if tropical cyclone genesis did not occur in the Caribbean the first week or two of Nov. but still really nothing to hang your hat on as far as the forecast models are concerned.  A series of strong surface high pressures will move across the Northeast U.S. into the NW Atlantic.  This steady dose of higher pressure will potentially induce low pressure far to the south over or near the SW Atlantic &/or Caribbean.

Global tropical activity... typhoon "Krosa" is in the W. Pacific & has moved across the extreme Northern Phillipines & will continue westward then bend southwest into Vietnam in next week.

The slow hurricane season continued through Oct. with 2 ("Karen" & "Lorenzo") weak tropical storms developing in the Atlantic Basin with no significant land impacts.  

Now that we're into Nov....we average a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic Basin about every other year.  The last Nov. system was "Sean" in 2011.  Since 1900, 4 Nov. hurricanes have made a U.S. landfall...the last -- "Kate" -- in 1985 which nailed the Fl. Panhandle the week of Thanksgiving.

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