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Tropical Disturbance Far Eastern Atlantic

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Updated: 9/08/2013 9:06 am
"Gabrielle" remnants moving east of Bahamas... Strong Wave Near Cape Verde Islands....

The remnants of "Gabrielle" are still producing plenty of convection -- albeit disorganized -- east of the Bahamas & north of Puerto Rico.  The remnants will continue to move north/northeast & will gradually become involved with an upper level trough & surface cold front over the Western Atlantic.  Some redevelopment is possible in the coming days, but the system should stay east of the U.S.

There will be no impact on the First Coast or any of Florida....

From the S. Florida Water Management District:

There is still a lot of convection over the far SW Gulf of Mexico.  No signs of organization, but this area + the Caribbean might be an area to watch over the next couple weeks.

A large area of dry mid & upper level air (black & rust colored areas on the water vapor satellite image below) continues over the Central Atlantic.

Shear remains significant over much of the Atlantic Basin -- as can be seen below -- 30+ knots over the Gulf of Mexico... 20+ knots over parts of the Caribbean... 50+ knots(!) over the Central Atlantic.  Until & unless the shear relaxes, tropical cyclones will generally struggle in this environment.

A strong tropical wave is near the Cape Verde Islands in the far E. Atlantic.  Initial conditions are favorable for development & nearly all global forecast models are unanimous in showing a quick-to-intensify tropical cyclone.  But very strong shear is located west of the Eastern Atlantic, & it would appear that conditions become hostile late in the week.  Until then, it looks like this wave become our next named storm & MIGHT become the first Atlanti Basin hurricane of 2013.

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