First Alert Weather Alert: Flood Warning expires at 8:00 AM on 4/18, issued at 10:44 AM Bryceville, FL | Callahan, FL | Fernandina Beach, FL | Glen Saint Mary, FL

Tropical Wave "Dorian" in SE Bahamas

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Updated: 7/31/2013 9:02 am
"Dorian's" continue to get sheared apart upon approach to the Bahamas.  It appears the wave might have split into two - one is a mid level circulation east of the Northern Bahamas....two is a surface reflection (trough) -- with the strongest convection -- over the Southeast Bahamas.  Obviously the wave is very poorly organized.  The mid level circulation should move north/northwest then turn northeast as it becomes involved with an upper level trough.  The surface trough should move west then turn more northwest with time & might add some tropical moisture to an already "juiced" air mass over Fl. late into the week/this weekend.  

A huge area of dry mid & upper level air -- a mainstay of the last several weeks -- covers much of the Caribbean eastward for hundreds of miles across the Central Atlantic.

No tropical waves of consequence are coming off the coast of Africa & is over the Eastern Atlantic.  With such a dry, stable air mass over the Atlantic (not to mention plenty of shear), any significant development of long track tropical wave (or cyclones) will be difficult to come by.

National Hurricane Center extends Tropical Weather Outlook to 5 days....
NOAA’s National Hurricane Center (NHC) will extend the time period covered by the Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) from 48 hours to five days. It’s the first change in the covered time period in several decades.
The NHC TWO is a text product that describes areas of disturbed weather and the potential for tropical cyclone development during the following 48-hour period. A probabilistic genesis forecast, to the nearest 10 percent, describing the chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours, is included for each area of disturbed weather described in the Outlook.
Beginning on August 1 at 8 a.m. EDT, NHC will begin including information about a system’s potential for development during the following five-day period. This information will be provided probabilistically in 10-percent increments, and will supplement the 48-hour probabilistic formation potential already provided.
NHC is currently developing a corresponding five-day genesis potential graphic that may become available later this season.

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