Twin Systems Over the Open Atlantic

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Updated: 9/21/2012 11:13 am
"Nadine" Still in E. Atlantic; Large Low in Central Atlantic....

"Nadine"  is still in the E. Atlantic over marginal sea surface temps. with a good deal of shear & showing signs of becoming post-tropical as it drifts south/southeast.

A large area of disorganized convection is over the Central Atlantic & is associated with a cold core surface low & upper level low well to the east of Bermuda.  Some slow subtropical or tropical development is not out of the question as the system moves slowly west/northwest.  In the long run, this system should get steered north well to the east of the U.S. thanks to the persistent strong trough in or near the N.E. U.S. &/or NW Atlantic & so is of no threat to any land areas.

Another area to watch during the next week or two will be the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean &/or SW Atlantic as an old frontal boundary/surface trough will set up shot in this region for an extended period occasionally reinforced by passing upper level troughs of low pressure.  Surface pressures will be quite high across the Northern U.S. & NW Atlantic, so the atmosphere should respond by developing low pressure to the south.  Nothing concrete to hang one's hat on at the moment but something to watch in this type of pattern + such an occurrence is not unusual later in the season.  As of right now...forecast models show no surface development but satellite imagery shows an unsettled Caribbean at times.


Still a few mostly weak tropical waves moving off the coast of Africa from time to time, but the clock is ticking on Cape Verde development, & the waves are showing little organization or stamina as they move west or W/NW.

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