First Alert Weather Alert: Flood Warning expires at 8:00 PM on 4/28, issued at 10:03 AM Bryceville, FL | Callahan, FL | Fernandina Beach, FL | Glen Saint Mary, FL

Unseasonable Front into the Gulf/SW Atlantic

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Updated: 8/27/2013 8:44 am
The last advisory on "Fernand" was issued late Mon. as the system dissipated over the high terrain of inland Mexico.

There's not much else to "hang your hat on" across most of the Atlantic Basin.  Upward vertical velocities -- generally favorable for tropical development if all other ingredients are equal -- are spreading into the Caribbean & Gulf.  

The frontal boundary/trough stretches from the Central Atlantic to Central Fl. into the Gulf.  We'll have to watch for any persistent cluster of t'storms that might eventually evolve into low pressure but nothing at the moment other than some t'storms near the Bahamas & Upper Keys.

A large area of dry mid & upper level air (black & rust colored areas on the water vapor satellite image below) remain over the Central Atlantic. Overall conditions remain unsuitable for significant tropical development in the short term.

Most forecast models continue to point to tropical development in the far Eastern Atlantic during the first half of Sept.  The troughing (or possible reinforcement of the trough) or a remaining "pinched" trough in the W. Atlantic might play a role in any possible movement across the Atlantic....or lack thereof.

Shear remains strong over much of the Atlantic Basin -- as can be seen below -- exceeding 30 knots over parts of the Gulf of Mexico... 30+ knots over parts of the Caribbean... 30-40+ knots over the Central Atlantic.

The frequency of tropical waves moving off Africa is generally steady but still lacks much organization or -- for that matter -- strong convection.  While no significant development is likely in the short term, this is an area that could -- & should -- become quite active in the next 1-3 weeks.  

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