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Upper Low in the Gulf

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Updated: 7/20/2013 8:32 pm
An upper level low continues to slowly move west/northwest over the Gulf of Mexico helping to trigger numerous -- but disorganized -- clusters of heavy showers & storms over the Gulf across Fl. into the Bahamas.  No tropical development expected.

Lots of convection across Fl. in association with the upper low as can be seen below (radar imagery courtesy S. Fl. Water Management District):

The satellite image below shows a very large area of stable air & cool temps. aloft covering much of the Central Atlantic east of the Caribbean - notice the light gray, "dotted" appearance of the cloud cover on the infrared level.  The second image below -- water vapor satellite -- shows this stable area very nicely (black & rust-colored area). Such an atmosphere is generally unfavorable for tropical development.

Dry air & shear are hammering away on any (few in number in the first place) tropical waves moving west off of Africa.  There is, however, a stronger wave poised to move off the African coast the next few days.  Some long range forecast models try to develop this wave as it moves west across the Atlantic through the end of the month.

Remarkable for this time of active storms in the global tropics(!).

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