First Alert Weather Alert: Flood Warning expires at 8:00 AM on 4/18, issued at 10:44 AM Bryceville, FL | Callahan, FL | Fernandina Beach, FL | Glen Saint Mary, FL

Very Active Pacific Basin

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Updated: 10/20/2013 2:52 pm
There are no areas of concern in the Atlantic Basin ... at least in the short term.

A cold front is moving into the Gulf & SE U.S.  The front will eventually sweep through the Gulf & enter the Northern Caribbean -- about midweek -- where it'll finally stall by next weekend.  This stalled front might be an area to watch for possible tropical development late in the month.

Sometimes meteorologists use "telleconnections" to try to come up with a general long range forecast for potential tropical development.  Powerful "Francisco" -- once a Cat. 5 super tyhoon -- will recurve very near Japan by late in the week as the storm weakens.  Other tropical cyclones will be developing in the W. Pacific over the coming days (see the 2nd image below) + "Raymond" has formed in the E. Pacific west of Mexico.

The telleconnection indicates the potential for tropical development in or near the Caribbean &/or SW Atlantic within the next couple weeks though forecast models are showing little of the sort...or at least are lacking a consistent signal.  The GFS model has recently occasionally shown some possible development not too far from the Yucatan Peninsula.  Deep & strong upper level troughing is forecast to eventually evolve over the Central or Eastern U.S., & this development might be key to when/where & how strong any tropical disturbance might be in addition where such a development might track.

Surface pressures remain generally low & sea surface temps. are plenty warm.


"Raymond" in the E. Pacific:

"Francisco":

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