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Thunderstorms have exploded over the Western/Northwest Caribbean. As pointed out during the past week...this is the area to watch during the upcoming week. Meanwhile...the Gulf of Mexico is very quiet with little in the way of even cloudiness let alone tropical convection/development.
Long range forecast models are still hinting at tropical development during the upcoming week over near the Yucatan Peninsula/far Southwest Gulf of Mexico. The GFS model is more developed while the European model has more of an open tropical wave or trough of low pressure. In either case...the timing & track is similar: middle of this week moving W/NW into Mexico south of Texas.