First Alert Weather Alert: Flood Warning expires at 8:00 PM on 4/28, issued at 10:03 AM Bryceville, FL | Callahan, FL | Fernandina Beach, FL | Glen Saint Mary, FL

Wave Approaching Bahamas

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Updated: 7/30/2013 8:55 am
"Dorian's" are clearly struggling against the west & southwest shear as satellite images show a stretched out area of disorganized convection from Hispaniola north for several hundred miles with a very sharp western edge (where shear becomes strongest).  This process -- stretching -- should continue the rest of the week, & it's possible that the wave will split with one piece turning N/NW as it becomes absorbed by an upper level trough moving into the SE U.S. while a second part would move almost due west.  Another scenario is that the wave would essentially dissipate as it becomes absorbed the upper trough.  Either way...regeneration still appears to be unlikely.  Locally heavy rain squalls & gusty winds will affect the Bahamas the next few days & possibly parts of Fl. Thu.-Fri.  

A huge area of dry mid & upper level air -- a mainstay of the last several weeks -- covers the Eastern Caribbean eastward for hundreds of miles across the Central Atlantic.

Forecast model plots below courtesy S. Fl. Water Management District:

A weak wave has moved off the coast of Africa & is over the Eastern Atlantic.  With such a dry air mass in its path, development is unlikely.

In the Central Pacific..."Flossie" weakened into a depression as it moved across Hawaii. Still some heavy rain, gusty winds and rough seas & surf for the Hawaiian Islands that will diminish by later Wed.

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