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Wave Near Puerto Rico

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Updated: 9/04/2013 6:55 pm
A tropical wave remains disorganized -- stretched out -- from the far Eastern Caribbean extending several hundred miles to the east.  The stretching appears tied to strong shear of 30-50 knots to the north of the wave.  There have been two pretty persistent clusters of t'storms east of the Lesser Antilles & southeast of Puerto Rico.  Models are split on movement -- more than likely because of how each model depicts development (or the lack otherof).

The wave will continue W/NW this week & -- as conditions become somewhat more favorable -- at least some potential for slow development late in the week into the weekend once beyond the strong shear zone.  In fact, most global forecast models show some development near or east of the Bahamas.  We'll also have to be mindful of the wave ending up farther west than indicated by models (as shown by the European) at this point because of how shallow (weak) the wave will likely remain for at least the next several days.  Otherwise some semblance of the nearly season-long upper level trough looks to remain intact near the U.S. east coast.  This feature should turn the wave more north in the long currently indicated by forecast long as the wave is strong enough to get pulled north.

From the S. Florida Water Management District:

Scattered convection has increased over the Gulf of Mexico but there's no organization....

The area of dry mid & upper level air (black & rust colored areas on the water vapor satellite image below) continues to gradually shrink over the Central Atlantic, but it's shear (see next paragraph & map) that's still largely prohibitive for much significant tropical development.

Shear remains significant over much of the Atlantic Basin -- as can be seen below -- but has diminished over the Gulf of Mexico... 20-30+ knots over parts of the Caribbean... 50+ knots(!) over the Central Atlantic.  Until & unless the shear relaxes, tropical cyclones will generally struggle in such an environment.

Weak tropical waves continue to move west off Africa but lack organization.  Models are showing more persistent/potentially significant development in the Central & Eastern Atlantic later next week & beyond.

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