First Alert Weather Alert: Flood Warning expires at 10:04 PM on 4/24, issued at 10:04 PM Blackshear, GA | Bristol, GA | Mershon, GA | Millwood, GA

Wave Nearing E. Caribbean

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Updated: 9/02/2013 9:04 am
A tropical wave is very disorganized -- stretched out -- from the Lesser Antilles extending several hundred miles to the east.  The stretching appears tied to a shear axis of 20-30+ knots that extends from the Central Caribbean across Puerto Rico & into the Central Atlantic. This shear might be why forecast models are less than enthusiastic about any significant development anytime soon. 
The wave will continue W/NW this week & -- as conditions become more favorable -- at least some potential for slow development late in the week into the weekend once beyond the strong shear.  In fact, most global forecast models show some development near or east of the Bahamas.  We'll also have to be mindful of the wave ending up farther west than indicated by models at this point because of how shallow (weak) the wave will likely remain for at least the next several days.  Otherwise some semblance of the nearly season-long upper level trough looks to remain intact near the U.S. east coast.  This feature could move the wave more north in the long currently indicated by forecast long as the wave is strong enough to get pulled north

From the S. Florida Water Management District:

The Gulf is very quiet with little even in the way of clouds save for some t'storm activity along the Gulf Coast in the vicinity of an old surface trough of low pressure....

The area of dry mid & upper level air (black & rust colored areas on the water vapor satellite image below) continues to gradually shrink over the Central Atlantic, but it's shear (see next paragraph & map) that's still largely prohibitive for much significant tropical development.

Shear remains significant over much of the Atlantic Basin -- as can be seen below -- but has diminished over the Gulf of Mexico... 30+ knots over parts of the Caribbean... 50+ knots(!) over the Central Atlantic.  Until & unless the shear relaxes, tropical cyclones will generally struggle in such an environment.

A tropical wave has off the coast of Africa.  The Cape Verde season is often getting into full swing this time of year, & this wave has long range potential but must survive the extreme shear now to its west.

September is typically the peak of the hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin.  Maps below show the probability of a Sept. hurricane....the 2nd image is typical genesis areas & prevailing tracks.

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