First Alert Weather Alert: Flood Warning expires at 8:00 PM on 4/28, issued at 10:03 AM Bryceville, FL | Callahan, FL | Fernandina Beach, FL | Glen Saint Mary, FL

Weak Disturbance Near the Bahamas

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Updated: 11/05/2013 7:37 am
An area of "disturbed weather" remains over the far SE Bahamas & near Cuba & Puerto Rico.  Very heavy rain will plague parts of the Bahamas, Northern Lesser & Greater Antilles through the week but true tropical development does not appear likely.

Another cold front has moved through the Gulf & into the NW Caribbean.

The global forecast pattern has significantly buckled dropping the jet stream over the E. Pacific & Western U.S. leading to the mean [avg.] trough shifting to the Western &/or Central U.S. for an extended period.  A large upper trough is becoming re-established over the Western/Central U.S. this week but forecast models are at odds for next week regarding a significant upper level trough.  The GFS model remains progressive & not near as meridional (north/south) vs. the much stronger, cutoff solution of the European.  Given the storminess over the Pacific, it would seem -- at the moment -- that a more progressive solution is the way to lean.

Surface pressures remain generally low & sea surface temps. are plenty warm over & near the Caribbean.  I would be surprised if tropical cyclone genesis did not occur in the Caribbean within the next few weeks but still really nothing to hang your hat on as far as the forecast models are concerned.  A series of strong surface high pressures will continue to move across the Northeast U.S. into the NW Atlantic.  This steady dose of higher pressure will potentially induce low pressure far to the south over or near the SW Atlantic &/or Caribbean which could in turn lead to some kind of tropical or subtropical development.  Again....this is completely a pattern recognition forecast & there are few if any forecast models indicating such -- for right least any development of much consequence.

Global tropical activity... "Haiyan" is intensifying over the W. Pacific & is forecast to hammer the Central Philippines by Thursday…possibly as a Cat. 5 super typhoon.

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