First Alert Weather Alert: Flood Warning expires at 10:04 PM on 4/24, issued at 10:04 PM Blackshear, GA | Bristol, GA | Mershon, GA | Millwood, GA

Weak Low W. Atlantic

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Updated: 10/09/2013 7:30 am
"Karen" Remnants into the W. Atlantic....... 


** heavy rain is over.  Some lingering mist & light rain will end by Wed. afternoon as breezy northeast winds usher in a cool fall air mass into the First Coast.  The low will finally lose its grip on the local area Thu. 

Infrared satellite imagery still shows a band of convection along a cold front moving into S. Fl. & the W. Atlantic having cleared virtually all of the Gulf of Mexico - a sure sign of autumn.

The surface map below shows a second surface low pressure system -- non tropical -- developing east of the Carolina's which will become the primary -- though quite weak -- low pressure system over the W. Atlantic.  The weak reflection of "Karen" east of Fl. will either dissipated or become absorbed by the low to the north.

Water vapor satellite images below showing the vast area of very dry air that is working south & east behind the cold front.  Low level moisture is still trapped beneath an inversion leading to drizzle & some very light rain but with such dry mid & upper level air, the heavy rain is over.

An upper level low with weak surface low pressure has shifted west to just east of the Bahamas.  Tropical development seems unlikely

A pair of tropical waves have moved off the coast of Africa leaving a disorganized areas of storminess over the E. Atlantic just west & south of the Cape Verde Islands.  There is some potential for a late season Cape Verde tropical cyclone, but the system should not manage to make a lot of progress west across the Atlantic as the wave gets steered north in the long term & encounters an increasingly hostile environment. 

Sometimes meteorologists use "telleconnections" to try to come up with a general long range forecast.  The map below from CIMSS (Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Studies) shows a couple of tropical cyclones in the W. Pacific.  One is strengthening in the Bay of Bengal & is forecast to become a typhoon & come ashore in India.  A second is developing east of Manila & is forecast to hit the Northern Philippines as a typhoon. 

These developments could be a clue that tropical development could be somewhere in the W. Atlantic in about 2 weeks.  Time will tell, & this type of forecasting certainly isn't perfect(!).

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