Disturbance in Gulf Remains Weak; Twin Hurricanes: "Leslie" & "Michael" (Not Buresh); New Wave in Far E. Atlantic....
***** An elevated rip current risk at First Coast beaches due to easterly swells from "Leslie" continues into the weekend - use caution at area beaches *****The mid & upper level disturbance that was "Isaac" has made it back into the Gulf of Mexico & is still accompanied by a persistent but disorganized cluster of showers & t'storms, especially in the south quadrant of the circulation. Mid & upper level shear remains strong over the east half of the Gulf. Time is running out for this disturbance to organize & all indications are that this system will remain weak & merge with an approaching cold front this weekend as a stretched out surface trough or weak low pressure. Still...the combination of the tropical disturbance + the strong upper trough + surface cold front should lead to heavy rain for the First Coast (& much of the Southeast U.S. & Gulf Coast) this weekend.
"Leslie" is still battling some shear & dry mid & upper level air with a wide circulation. The storm has barely moved for several days causing upwelling beneath the cyclone. It seems the combination of the cooler sea surface temps. + lingering dry mid & upper level air is hindering "Leslie" quite a bit. "Leslie" should start to increase its forward speed to the north or north/northwest as a strong upper trough approaches this weekend. Despite recent struggles & the less than impressive satellite imagery, "Leslie" will likely strengthen once it begins its move north. The storm will stay far to the east of the U.S. & a little east of Bermuda but could affect parts of Nova Scotia &/or Newfoundland early next week.
"Leslie" will be strong enough & large enough to continue to send an easterly swell to First Coast beaches through at least increasing the rip current risk....with at least an elevated risk continuing into the weekend.
"Michael" (not Buresh!) is still a pretty strong hurricane. The hurricane is likely to only move very slowly to the north then turn northwest & is no threat to any land areas. There may be some eventual interaction with much bigger "Leslie" in the N. Atlantic next week.
A wave in the far E. Atlantic is just off the coast of Africa. Forecast models develop this wave fairly quickly but are also showing pretty early recurvature (at this time). This wave could become "Nadine" assuming the Gulf disturbance fails to develop.
