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Weak Tropical Waves in the Caribbean

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Updated: 10/30/2013 7:37 am
A large area of convection is moving into the N. Atlantic associated with a strong nontropical low.  This storm will continue northeast over the open Atlantic.

Several tropical waves are in -- or nearing -- the Caribbean.  Westerly shear has been tearing the waves apart & no imminent development is likely to occur.  Forecast models do pick up on a tropical wave -- that's now near the NE Caribbean -- & move the wave west then north through the Gulf of Mexico next week.  The GFS model takes this wave well to the west because the model has a stronger upper level ridge near Jax.  The European model takes the wave through the Eastern Gulf with a much sharper turn to the north.  Neither model develop the wave, but the European model would be wetter for the First Coast.

The Gulf is void of much cloud cover let alone any tropical activity.  Convection over the Southern Plains is associated with the next cold front (Sat.) for the First Coast.

The global forecast pattern has significantly buckled as the jet stream over the E. Pacific & Western U.S. leading to the mean [avg.] trough shifting to the Western &/or Central U.S. later this week & beyond.

Surface pressures remain generally low & sea surface temps. are plenty warm over & near the Caribbean.  I would be surprised if tropical cyclone genesis did not occur in the Caribbean the first week or two of Nov. but still really nothing to hang your hat on as far as the forecast models are concerned.

Global tropical activity:

"Raymond" is dissipating over the E. Pacific:



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