First Alert Weather Alert: Flood Warning expires at 10:04 PM on 4/24, issued at 10:04 PM Blackshear, GA | Bristol, GA | Mershon, GA | Millwood, GA

Weak Wave Central Atlantic

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Updated: 10/15/2013 7:40 am
Non-tropical Low E of Jax... Sheared Wave Central Atlantic... Active Pacific 

A non-tropical low is -- as expected -- dropping south through the far Western Atlantic east of Jacksonville. This low will slowly wind down & move away from Jax by midweek.  Gusty onshore flow will continue for the First Coast through Tue. night with coastal/near coast showers + cooler temps.  No tropical development of this system is expected. 

The surface map below shows the weak surface low in the W. Atlantic east of Jax.  The stronger low is well northeast of Jax, but the weak low developed in response to an upper level disturbance moving into the SE U.S.  This low could bring some locally heavy rain bands to the coast from Fernandina Beach to Mayport to Jax Beach to Ponte Vedra to Flagler Beach.

A persistent tropical wave has moved into the Central Atlantic but is under the effects of strong shear a few hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles.  Any development will be slow as the wave turns more north the next few days.  

A cluster of heavy t'storms is east of the Bahamas.  We'll have to watch this feature for persistence but any development would be slow with an eventual move to the north/northeast staying east of the U.S.

Another wave has just come off the coast of Africa south of the Cape Verde Islands but should face a similar fate to its predecessor so little development.

Sometimes meteorologists use "telleconnections" to try to come up with a general long range forecast for potential tropical development.  The map below from CIMSS (Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Studies) shows a couple of tropical cyclones in the W. Pacific + a couple of tropical cyclones in the E. Pacific.  

* "Nari" -- has moved into Vietnam & is weakening. 

* Typhoon -- "Wipha" -- is farther to the east & will just catch the eastern edge of Japan as the storm recurves & weakens to a tropical storm. 

These developments -- along with the increase in tropical activity in the E. Pacific --  could be a clue that tropical development could be somewhere in the W. Atlantic in about 2 weeks.  Time will tell, & this type of forecasting certainly isn't perfect(!).  Long range forecast models, however, are not showing much development at this time over any part of the Atlantic Basin.  Surface pressures will generally be low over the Caribbean & SW Atlantic, so it's an area to watch, but it's also getting late in the season.  Having said that....sea surface temps. are still plenty warm -- well into the 80s.



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