First Alert Weather Alert: Flood Warning expires at 8:00 AM on 4/18, issued at 10:44 AM Bryceville, FL | Callahan, FL | Fernandina Beach, FL | Glen Saint Mary, FL

Weakening "Lorenzo" in the Atlantic

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Updated: 10/24/2013 11:05 pm
"Lorenzo" is weakening fast over the Central Atlantic & becoming a remnant low.
The storm will continue to accelerate to the east/northeast while dissipating.

The strong cold front that rolled across the First Coast is steadily moving south through the Fl. Straits & far Southern Gulf & will enter the Northern Caribbean where it'll finally stall over the weekend.  This stalled front might be an area to watch for possible tropical development late in the month over the Caribbean.  A cluster of convection has persisted in the SW Gulf but lacks any organization.  While some development is not out of the question, such a process would be slow.

As I've been alluding to for more than a week.... sometimes meteorologists use "telleconnections" (in this case over the W. Pacific) to try to come up with a general long range forecast for potential tropical development as well as possible whole sale changes in the upper level weather pattern over the U.S.  

* "Francisco" is recurving south of Japan & will move east of Japan as the storm continues to weaken.  No major impact is anticipated for the main island of Japan.

* "Lekima" is a major typhoon to the east of "Francisco" & will recurve farther to the east staying well east of Japan.

"Raymond" in the E. Pacific off the coast of Mexico is gradually weakening. Heavy rain has caused flooding in & near Acapulco but conditions will slowly improve as "Raymond" begins to move west away from Mexico.

The telleconnection indicates the potential for tropical development in or near the Caribbean &/or SW Atlantic within the next couple weeks though forecast models have generally lacked a consistent signal.  But the GFS model has started to fairly consistently show the development of a tropical cyclone in the Caribbean late in the month to -- more frequently now -- early Nov. but with a wide range of intensity & location (not surprising so far in advance).  Pretty consistent significant troughing will eventually evolve over the Central or Eastern U.S. which could be a key to when/where & how strong any tropical disturbance might be in addition where such a development might track.  However, the developments (typhoons) over the W. Pacific signify a likely buckling of the jet stream over the E. Pacific & U.S. next week possibly leading to the the trough shifting back to the Western &/or Central U.S. by Halloween & beyond.

Surface pressures remain generally low & sea surface temps. are plenty warm.  I would be surprised if tropical cyclone genesis did not occur in the Caribbean between Halloween & the 10th or so of Nov.

Global tropical acitivity:

"Raymond" in the E. Pacific now moving west away from the Mexico coast:



On a historic tropical note: It was on Oct. 24th last year that "Sandy" became a hurricane in the Caribbean.  The storm first hit Jamaica then Eastern Cuba...the Bahamas...rolled north through the W. Atlantic passing well to the east of Jax late in the month before becoming a massive extratropical storm that turned west making landfall Oct. 29th on the coast of New Jersey.  "Sandy" produced a historical storm surge on the coast of N.Y. & Jersey while generating heavy snow far inland.  The 72 U.S. deaths was the greatest death toll from a landfalling named storm -- outside of the Southern U.S. -- since "Agnes" in 1972.  Click ** here ** for a NASA summary... ** here ** for a NHC summary.

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