Weakening "Debby" approaching the west coast of Fl...very heavy rain & isolated tornadoes for the First Coast....daily record rainfall for June 25th at JIA of 7.36" (old record for the date was 2.92" in 2008) + a single day record for any June day.....
** A significant flooding threat for the First Coast...isolated tornadoes into Wed.**....while winds won't be very strong for the most part -- outside of heavier showers & isolated t'storms, it won't take as much as it would typically take to uproot trees given the saturated soil.....
Dry air (see 2nd satellite [water vapor] image below) & westerly shear has had its way with "Debby" leaving the tropical cyclone in a shambles when it comes to organization. The storm should soon be ashore on the upper part of Florida's west coast, but a broad & long southerly fetch of winds to the east of the center will continue to pull tropical moisture northward across Fl. & the First Coast into Georgia triggering bands of heavy showers with a few t'storms. The result will be profound effects NE Fl. & SE Ga. in the form of major flooding with near record flooding possible in some areas.
For the First Coast...heavy rain & a few t'storms will occur into Wed. with the potential for storm totals of 10-20 inches, locally up to 25"!! resulting in a significant flooding threat along with at least isolated tornadoes. The highest rain totals will be near & north of I-10 into far Southern/SE Ga. but rain may increase -- with time -- south of I-10 as well.
Saturated soils will allow for easily uprooted trees & scattered power outages.
"Debby" should continue to weaken on its transit near & across Fl. through Wed. before eventually emerging in the Western Atlantic by Thu. The exact track & timing will not be particularly important as torrential rain will remain a possibility until the center moves east of the First Coast -- sometime Wed. night or Thu. Winds will be of little significance with such a weak tropical cyclone though isolated stronger gusts will likely occur in & near rain bands & t'storms. Once the center passes into the Atlantic, some drying can be expected by Thu. & especially Fri. into the weekend.
