by: Michael Buresh Updated:
June 27, 2017 - Our "wet season" is well underway. Most areas will end up at least several inches above the June avg. of 6-6.5"... & some spots will have had well over a foot! Give the irrigation systems a break .....
El Nino Update: there continue to be indications that the possible El Nino for later this summer into the fall & winter will either not occur or will be quite weak. The image below from climate.com shows equatorial water (ENSO monitoring region) is a little above avg. but not a lot (while the atmospheric temps. remain neutral).
Positive anomalies just are not very significant nor well established nor is the depth very impressive:
Forecast models have generally backed off as well with less than a 50/50 chance of an El Nino once to fall & beyond - far lower numbers than just a few months ago.
Tha Australian Bureau of Meteorology - a good source since ENSO has big impacts on "Down Under" & lots of research has been done there - concurs.
So.... the upshot for Jacksonville in the short term are the implications for the hurricane season. Neutral conditions over the equatorial Pacific will lead to - in general - more favorable conditions for tropical cyclones over the Atlantic Basin. We've seen some indication of such during the first few weeks of the season & that's why many seasonal forecasts have been increased.
EARTH GAUGE (NEEF):
Steer clear of a sheen of green (Sarah Blount).....
…or blue, or brown, or red! Algal blooms come in many colors and can have serious negative health impacts on humans and animals by contaminating waterways and drinking supplies. A type of algae called blue-green algae, or cyanobacteria, is the predominant culprit behind toxic algal blooms in freshwater systems. These bacteria produce cyanotoxins that can impact the liver, the nervous system, and the skin of those who are unfortunate enough to come into contact with them. Drinking, bathing, or swimming in contaminated waters can lead to an array of negative health impacts including blisters, fever, muscle and joint pain, paralysis, asthma, and allergic reactions such as rashes. In extreme cases, the deaths of wildlife and domestic animals have been reported in association with toxic algal blooms.
If you see a body of water with surface discoloration such as a red, green, or brown tint, especially if the water has a thick, mat-like accumulation of scum on the shoreline and surface coupled with an unpleasant smell, remember this tips:
Stay away from it. Do not use the water for swimming, boating, or fishing. Keep children and pets away as well.
If you accidentally come into contact with water you suspect is contaminated, immediately rinse off with clean, fresh water.
Do not attempt to kill the algae with algaecides yourself—by killing the algae, the cells are burst, which can release the toxins into the water. Allow professionals to determine if a chemical treatment is necessary.
If you think someone has been poisoned by a toxic algal bloom, seek medical attention immediately.
Report algal blooms to your state’s department of health or environment. Find your state’s contact information.(link is external)
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Buresh Blog: El Nino update - June 27th
First Alert Forecast: Tracking Thanksgiving rain
Talking the Tropics With Mike: Convection over the Gulf of Mexico
Talking the Tropics With Mike: Weak low pressure to develop near Florida
Talking the Tropics With Mike: Dry and stable air pushing deep into the tropics